251
FXUS65 KPIH 151915
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
115 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING
- DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK UNTIL THE WEEKEND
- WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RETURN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 103 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS, POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, UPPER END OF THE SNAKE
PLAIN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. A BRIEF BURST OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
RIGHT NOW, ANY RISK OF SMALL HAIL AND STRONGER WIND IS SLIM TO
NONE. COVERAGE DWINDLES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WE MAY SEE
AN ADDITIONAL BAND DEVELOP ALONG A WINDSHIFT DROPPING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY, SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS
WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MONTANA
AND WYOMING BORDERS. THAT WILL QUICKLY END TOMORROW EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO JUST BELOW AVERAGE BOTH IN THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 103 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
WED THROUGH NEXT MON NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
VERY WEAK THROUGH SAT IN THE WESTERN STATES, WITH THE RIDGE SITTING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A WARMING WITH A DRY PATTERN
THROUGH THAT PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WEAK PATTERN MEANS
LITTLE TO NO WIND WITH NO FEATURE MOVING THROUGH. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THAT SUCH A WEAK PATTERN COULD ALLOW MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO. HOWEVER, THE NBM IS INDICATING PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AT 10 PERCENT OF BELOW FOR THE MOMENT.
ON SUN, A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
FOR TWO CLUSTERS MAKING UP 49 PERCENT OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH 26
PERCENT HAVING THIS TROUGH DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PERHAPS BRING
CLOUDS, PRECIPITATION, AND UNSTABLE AIR. FOR MON, ABOUT 40 PERCENT
OF THE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOME PART OF
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE END OF THIS PERIOD HAS A MUCH FASTER AND MORE
ZONAL FLOW THAT THE WEAK FLOW OF THE FIRST HALF. THUS THE WEATHER AT
THE END MAY BE MORE DETERMINED BY THE PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THIS MEAN FLOW, AND MAKES THE FORECAST MORE UNCERTAIN FOR
SUN AND MON. THIS RISK FALLS OUT IN THE 10 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE OF
PROBABILITY, SO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RISK APPEARS VALIDATED FOR NOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS REMAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AT SUN, IDA AND DIJ. DUE TO SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE,
WE ONLY INCLUDED PROB30 AT DIJ. WE WILL JUST NEED TO SEE HOW
THINGS PROGRESS TO SEE WHEN AND WHERE WE NEED TO ADJUST THINGS.
WE EVENTUALLY SEE A FULL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW OVER US TODAY. WE COULD
SEE SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS TOMORROW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO
LOW AT THE MOMENT TO PUT ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 103 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
WARMING AND DRYING WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW THAT GENERATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS PREVIOUS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMALS AND FOR HUMIDITY TO BE LOWER THAN USUAL, WITH SOME LOWER
ELEVATION HUMIDITY LOWERING BELOW 15 PERCENT BY FRI. THE WARMER
CONDITIONS WILL BE OFFSET BY THE STABILIZING HIGH PRESSURE FOR
INSTABILITIES TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME EVERY AFTERNOON. THE VERY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN AFTER TODAY SHOULD KEEP WIND AWAY FROM
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND THE SUNSHINE PRODUCE NORMAL SLOPE-VALLEY
INTERACTIONS. THE NEXT RISK OF PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION IS NOT
REALLY UNTIL SUN AT THE EARLIEST.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KEYES
LONG TERM...MESSICK
AVIATION...KEYES
FIRE WEATHER...MESSICK
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