951
FXUS65 KPIH 051722
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1122 AM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE
ON TAP TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND.
- FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING EXPECTED FOR VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.
- UNCERTAINTY HEADED INTO LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT GENERALLY DRIER
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS MID-WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 108 AM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND 0.10 INCHES OR
LESS. THE CHANCES FOR SEEING AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 0.25 INCHES ARE ABOUT
20%. SNOW LEVELS TODAY WILL BE SITTING AROUND 7000 FEET WITH A
COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, ALTHOUGH
IMPACTS TO ROADS LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL.
WE EXPECT TO CLEAR OUT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE'S A 50 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF TEMPS LESS
THAN 33 DEGREES ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY
MONDAY MORNING. SO BASED ON THAT, WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE A FREEZE
WARNING FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. FOR OUR
MOUNTAIN AND HIGHLAND COMMUNITIES, THERE'S A 60 TO 90% CHANCE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW 29 DEGREES. 28 DEGREES IS CONSIDERED A
KILLING FREEZE, SO THE NEXT NIGHT OR TWO WILL MOST LIKELY END THE
GROWING SEASON IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS. THE ODDS OF SEEING A
KILLING FREEZE FOR THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY IS LESS THAN 10% BUT FOR
THE SNAKE PLAIN, ITS CLOSER TO ABOUT 40%, BUT THE PROBABILITIES ARE
VERY ERRATIC SUGGESTING COLD SPOTS THAT WILL FALL BELOW 28.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT SAT OCT 4 2025
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT GIVES WAY TO WEAK
RIDGING BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND FROM THE
WEEKEND LOWS, BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. NEXT DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH
TAKES SHAPE OFF THE PACNW COAST, DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE STATE. A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS WANT TO PULL PACIFIC ENERGY
INLAND BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE IS
BETTER CONSENSUS ON PRECIPITATION ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO. WE'VE SEEN VFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS, DEPENDING ON IF A PARTICULAR AIRPORT WAS UNDERNEATH
A DECENT SHOWER TODAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THINGS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
LOW CROSSING THE STATE. THAT MEANS COLDER AIR DROPS INTO OUR
AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW DRY THE AIR MAKES IT INTO AREA. WE
DO EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE LOWER CEILINGS AT BYI, PIH, IDA AND DIJ.
WE HAVEN'T ACCOUNTED FOR ANY FOG, BUT IT CERTAINLY DEVELOP LAST
MINUTE WITH HOW SATURATED THE AIR WILL BE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE SHOW A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF SEEING FOG, SO
THAT LENDS CREDENCE TO IT BEING A NON-ZERO CHANCE RIGHT NOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 108 AM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE AROUND
0.10 INCHES OR LESS. COLDER BUT DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
IDZ051>055.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...KEYES
FIRE WEATHER...13
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