843  
FXUS65 KPIH 111946  
AFDPIH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID  
146 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND MUCH COLDER. SNOW  
LEVELS DROPPING TO 5 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET TONIGHT.  
 
- 1-4" SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED ABOVE 6500 FT INCLUDING PASSES  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE SWINGING THROUGH THE  
REGION TODAY, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,  
MOUNTAIN SNOW, BREEZY WINDS, AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.  
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT, ALREADY RUNNING MORE  
THAN 20 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY'S TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS  
WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO CLOUD COVER, WITH LOW TO MID-30S IN THE  
VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE SUN ON  
SUNDAY, BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RUN UP TO 15 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL STILL WITH WIDESPREAD 40S TO LOW 50S AND 30S IN THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN. HREF PROBABILITY OF THUNDER RANGES 20 TO 80  
PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON,  
INCREASING FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH ALONG OUR BORDERS WITH UT AND  
WY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH. OUTSIDE  
OF STORMS, WINDS WILL GENERALLY GUST 20 TO 30 MPH. SNOW LEVELS  
WILL DROP BELOW 6,000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT, ALLOWING 1"-4" OF  
SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ABOVE 6,500 FEET ELEVATION IN THE EASTERN  
HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WITH UP TO AROUND 1  
INCH IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY, AS  
WELL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
WE GET A VERY SHORT BREAK MONDAY BEFORE MORE  
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES IN EASTERN IDAHO. SPLIT FLOW IS STILL THE MO  
WITH THE LOW DROPPING INTO CALIFORNIA TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS US IN  
WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THAT ACTUAL LOW CROSSING THE STATE.  
WE WILL SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR  
SEVERAL FOLKS BY TUESDAY. THE HIGHER END OF THE TEMPERATURE RANGE  
TUESDAY PUTS OUR TYPICAL WARMER SPOTS, ESPECIALLY WITH DOWNSLOPE  
ENHANCING THINGS, PUSHING 65-70. THAT IS SHORT LIVED AS WE SEE THE  
LOW SWINGING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN.  
TWO THINGS ARE CERTAIN AT THE MOMENT: WE WILL SEE MORE RAIN AND  
SNOW, AND IT WILL GET COLDER AGAIN. HOW COLD AND THE TRACK OF THE  
LOW ARE NOT THAT CERTAIN AT THE MOMENT. THE GFS SWINGS THE STORM  
THROUGH A BIT QUICKER VS THE ECMWF. THE GFS ALSO TRACKS THE LOW OVER  
UTAH AND WYOMING MORE THAN THE ECMWF, WHICH BRINGS IT RIGHT OVER THE  
STATE. THE GFS WOULD ACTUALLY PULL IN SOME SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR VS  
THE ECMWF INITIALLY, AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE BLEND OF MODELS IN  
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE  
OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY HAS LOW TO  
MID 50S, AND MID 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY. THE COLDER END OF  
RANGES HAS MID TO UPPER 40S AND LOW TO MID 40S ON THOSE RESPECTIVE  
DAYS. SNOW LEVELS AT NIGHT ON THE LOW END OF RANGES DROPS TO WITHIN  
500 OF THE LOWEST VALLEY FLOORS IF NOT DOWN TO THEM. MEANWHILE, THE  
OFFICIAL SNOW LEVEL FORECAST IS 1000-1500FT HIGHER. LOOKING AT SOME  
VERY EARLY NUMBERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR  
OVER 0.50" OF MOISTURE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS IS 15-35% (OUTSIDE OF  
LOCATIONS EAST OF I-15). FOR HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE  
SAWTOOTHS, EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS...THE CHANCE FOR SEEING  
MORE THAN 1" SITS AT 25-35%.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH THIS  
WILL END WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS  
INTO WYOMING OVERNIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS  
POPPING UP ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-15. TO ACCOUNT FOR THUNDER, WE  
HAVE BEEN USING A MIX OF PROB30 AND VCTS (DEPENDING ON CHANCE OF  
LIGHTNING) AND WILL INTO TONIGHT. GUSTS OF 35KTS ARE EXPECTED  
WITH STRONGER STORMS. FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, WE WILL  
SEE LOWER CLOUDS REMAINING PLACE ALONG WITH ELEVATED WINDS  
(OUTSIDE OF SUN). WE KEPT VCSH IN FOR IDA AND DIJ PAST THIS  
EVENING, WITH DIJ LASTING PAST SUNRISE. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD,  
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL HAVE A WIDE RANGE...WHICH WE'VE  
ALREADY SEEN WITH THINGS BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SAT OCT 11 2025  
 
WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH  
TEMPERATURES COOLING THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 5  
TO 6 THOUSAND FEET OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE  
IN ZONES 411, 410 AND 413. CLOSE TO A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF  
WETTING RAINS. LESSER AMOUNTS IN ZONES 475, 476 AND 422 BUT  
STILL LIKELY WETTING RAINS. WILL BEGIN TO DRY A SUNDAY WITH  
MONDAY LIKELY THE DRIEST DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...CROPP  
LONG TERM...KEYES  
AVIATION...KEYES  
FIRE WEATHER...GK  
 
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