949  
FXUS65 KPIH 121910  
AFDPIH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID  
110 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SHOWERS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MOST AREAS DRY THROUGH  
MONDAY.  
 
- ONE NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WITH FROST ADVISORY  
AND FREEZE WARNING FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.  
 
- WARMER MONDAY WITH SHOWERS RETURNING FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE PACNW AND EAST IDAHO TODAY PER  
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AREA WEBCAMS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A FEW  
SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION, WITH OBSERVED SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN  
6000 AND 7000 FT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, BECOMING A LOCALLY GUSTY  
DOWN-VALLEY NORTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT. WHILE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO  
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE MOST AREAS FOR TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES DROP IN THE  
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR  
THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY/SHOSHONE REGION, AND A FREEZE WARNING FOR  
THE UPPER AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND ARCO/MUD LAKE DESERT REGIONS  
FOR TONIGHT. UPPER TROUGH RE-AMPLIFIES ALONG THE COAST MONDAY, WITH  
UPPER FLOW ONCE AGAIN TURNING SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. DRIER  
FLOW IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY, BUT SHOWERS MAY RETURN FOR THE  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPS SOME OF THE  
TROPICAL REMNANTS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE  
FREEZING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND  
MOISTURE, AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES  
AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
 
RAIN, SNOW AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN STARTING TUESDAY AND LAST  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. WE REMAIN IN STRONG SOUTHERLY  
FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW ON TUESDAY. WE WILL LIKELY LOW TO MID 60S  
IN WARMER SPOTS, ESPECIALLY WHERE WE CAN GET DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO  
AID WITH ANY WARMING AND COUNTER INCREASING  
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. THE BEST DAYS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
ARE STARTING TO LOOK PRETTY WET ACROSS OUR AREA. AS WE'VE DONE  
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, LET'S DIG INTO SOME OF THE "WHAT IF  
FORECASTS" VS THE OFFICIAL BLEND OF MODELS FORECAST. HIGHS BOTH  
OF THOSE DAYS WITH OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE IN THE MID 40S  
TO LOW 50S DOWN LOW. THE LOWER END OF THE BLEND FORECASTS HAS  
HIGHS NEVER GETTING OUT OF THE 40S. IN TERMS OF LOWS BOTH DAYS,  
THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS IS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30S WITH MANY  
SPOTS CLOSE ENOUGH TO 32 FOR A LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR  
LOWEST VALLEY SPOTS. THE COLDER END OF THE BLEND OF MODELS WOULD  
DEFINITELY HAVE SNOW FALLING (MAYBE NOT ACCUMULATING) AT ALL  
ELEVATIONS IN EASTERN IDAHO. IF WE CAN GET THE COLDER SCENARIO  
THAT IS STILL DEPICTED IN THE ENSEMBLES (WHICH HELP FEED THE  
BLEND "WHAT IF FORECASTS"), IT COULD BE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF  
THE SEASON FOR SOME OF OUR MORE POPULATED CITIES. PRECIPITATION  
AMOUNTS THIS EARLY ON SHOW 0.30-0.80" OVER 72 HOURS FOR LOWER  
ELEVATIONS, WITH A 10-40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THAT (LOCATION  
DEPENDENT). FOR THE MOUNTAINS, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RIGHT NOW  
PUTS US AT 1.0-1.5" FOR MOST RANGES, WITH AROUND 2" FOR THE BIG  
HOLES AND TETONS. THERE IS A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE WE EXCEED 2"  
THERE AT THE MOMENT. WE SHOULD GET ANOTHER BREAK ON SATURDAY,  
WITH THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
 
WE ARE SEEING SOME FLUCTUATION BETWEEN VFR TO IFR TODAY DUE  
LINGERING SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS OVERALL DUE TO SOME AREAS  
GETTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. WE ALSO STILL SEE  
POCKETS OF GUSTS OF 20-30KTS THAT WILL LAST UNTIL EARLY EVENING.  
WHILE THERE IS SOME HINT WE LOSE MOST OF THE CURRENT LOW AND MID  
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, WE ARE AFRAID TO LOSE THAT ENTIRELY. THE  
CONCERN IS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ISN'T BEING HANDLED PROPERLY.  
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED SOME LOW CLOUD COVER (FLIRTING WITH  
MVFR/IFR THRESHOLDS IN TERMS OF AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT  
AND MONDAY MORNING. PROBABILITY FORECASTS ARE ALMOST NOTHING,  
WHICH ISN'T INSTILLING CONFIDENCE OUR FORECAST IS A BIG STEP IN  
THE RIGHT DIRECTION. THAT SAID, WE WILL STICK WITH THE IDEA OF  
SOME AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDINESS. BYI WOULD BE THE OVERALL  
EXCEPTION DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY/DOWNPLAIN WIND. SOME  
SEMBLANCE OF LIGHTER WINDS OR POTENTIAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS IS  
THERE, INCLUDING SUN. SPEAKING OF SUN, THIS PATTERN DOESN'T  
LOOK VERY CONDUCIVE TO A FULL BLOWN SWITCH TO A TYPICAL  
NORTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT. THEY LIKELY GO VARIABLE OR STAY  
SOUTHERLY WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED LATER MONDAY. THIS WOULD BE  
CONDUCIVE TO KEEP LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE ESPECIALLY WITH ANY  
STRATUS THAT HANGS AROUND SOUTH OF HAILEY AND INTO THE MAGIC  
VALLEY.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
 
VERY COLD TODAY WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN ZONES 411,  
475, 476 AND 422 BUT MINIMAL AMOUNTS. WILL SEE MAINLY DRY  
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHERLY  
AGAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15  
DEGREES WARMER MONDAY THAN TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN  
MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY  
AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS IN THE 7 TO 8 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE.  
BUT WILL HAVE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ONCE AGAIN EVERYWHERE  
AND WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT COOLING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT MONDAY FOR  
IDZ051-055.  
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT MONDAY FOR  
IDZ052>054.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DMH  
LONG TERM...KEYES  
AVIATION...KEYES  
FIRE WEATHER...GK  
 
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