859
FXUS65 KPIH 130418
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1018 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MOST AREAS DRY THROUGH
MONDAY.
- ONE NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WITH FROST ADVISORY
AND FREEZE WARNING FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
- WARMER MONDAY WITH SHOWERS RETURNING FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE PACNW AND EAST IDAHO TODAY PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AREA WEBCAMS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A FEW
SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION, WITH OBSERVED SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN
6000 AND 7000 FT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, BECOMING A LOCALLY GUSTY
DOWN-VALLEY NORTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT. WHILE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE MOST AREAS FOR TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES DROP IN THE
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY/SHOSHONE REGION, AND A FREEZE WARNING FOR
THE UPPER AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND ARCO/MUD LAKE DESERT REGIONS
FOR TONIGHT. UPPER TROUGH RE-AMPLIFIES ALONG THE COAST MONDAY, WITH
UPPER FLOW ONCE AGAIN TURNING SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. DRIER
FLOW IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY, BUT SHOWERS MAY RETURN FOR THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPS SOME OF THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
MOISTURE, AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025
RAIN, SNOW AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN STARTING TUESDAY AND LAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. WE REMAIN IN STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW ON TUESDAY. WE WILL LIKELY LOW TO MID 60S
IN WARMER SPOTS, ESPECIALLY WHERE WE CAN GET DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO
AID WITH ANY WARMING AND COUNTER INCREASING
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. THE BEST DAYS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ARE STARTING TO LOOK PRETTY WET ACROSS OUR AREA. AS WE'VE DONE
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, LET'S DIG INTO SOME OF THE "WHAT IF
FORECASTS" VS THE OFFICIAL BLEND OF MODELS FORECAST. HIGHS BOTH
OF THOSE DAYS WITH OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S DOWN LOW. THE LOWER END OF THE BLEND FORECASTS HAS
HIGHS NEVER GETTING OUT OF THE 40S. IN TERMS OF LOWS BOTH DAYS,
THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS IS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30S WITH MANY
SPOTS CLOSE ENOUGH TO 32 FOR A LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR
LOWEST VALLEY SPOTS. THE COLDER END OF THE BLEND OF MODELS WOULD
DEFINITELY HAVE SNOW FALLING (MAYBE NOT ACCUMULATING) AT ALL
ELEVATIONS IN EASTERN IDAHO. IF WE CAN GET THE COLDER SCENARIO
THAT IS STILL DEPICTED IN THE ENSEMBLES (WHICH HELP FEED THE
BLEND "WHAT IF FORECASTS"), IT COULD BE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF
THE SEASON FOR SOME OF OUR MORE POPULATED CITIES. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS THIS EARLY ON SHOW 0.30-0.80" OVER 72 HOURS FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS, WITH A 10-40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THAT (LOCATION
DEPENDENT). FOR THE MOUNTAINS, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RIGHT NOW
PUTS US AT 1.0-1.5" FOR MOST RANGES, WITH AROUND 2" FOR THE BIG
HOLES AND TETONS. THERE IS A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE WE EXCEED 2"
THERE AT THE MOMENT. WE SHOULD GET ANOTHER BREAK ON SATURDAY,
WITH THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1002 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025
ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR CURRENTLY WITH LIGHT WINDS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. CIGS SHOULD MOSTLY CLEAR
OUT TONIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES. THERE IS STILL A VERY SMALL
CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS FOR KIDA, KPIH, AND
KSUN, SO LEFT FEW010 IN THE TAF FOR THOSE THREE SITES.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA BY
TOMORROW, MONDAY, MORNING BECOMING A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK BY
TOMORROW, MONDAY, AFTERNOON. VICINITY SHOWERS SHOULD START EARLY
MONDAY EVENING FOR KSUN AND KBYI. EXPECT VICINITY SHOWERS FOR
ALL TAF SITES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS BY TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM OUR SOUTH
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT MONDAY FOR IDZ051-055.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MDT MONDAY FOR IDZ052>054.
SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...KEYES
AVIATION...TW
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