286  
FXUS65 KPIH 131138  
AFDPIH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID  
538 AM MDT MON OCT 13 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS CONTINUE THIS MORNING.  
 
- WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS RETURNING TONIGHT/TUESDAY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS  
MORNING. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK  
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST, TURNING OUR WIND FLOW  
SOUTHERLY ACROSS IDAHO AND SUPPORTING A LARGELY WARMER AND DRIER  
DAY TODAY. SHOWERS MAY START TO RETURN TONIGHT AS THE DEEP  
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPS SOME OF THE TROPICAL REMNANTS CURRENTLY  
IMPACTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
 
RAIN, SNOW AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN STARTING TUESDAY AND LAST  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. WE REMAIN IN STRONG SOUTHERLY  
FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW ON TUESDAY. WE WILL LIKELY REACH LOW TO  
MID 60S IN WARMER SPOTS, ESPECIALLY WHERE WE CAN GET DOWNSLOPE  
WINDS TO AID WITH ANY WARMING AND COUNTER INCREASING  
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. THE BEST DAYS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
ARE STARTING TO LOOK PRETTY WET ACROSS OUR AREA. AS WE'VE DONE  
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, LET'S DIG INTO SOME OF THE "WHAT IF  
FORECASTS" VS THE OFFICIAL BLEND OF MODELS FORECAST. HIGHS BOTH  
OF THOSE DAYS WITH OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE IN THE MID 40S  
TO LOW 50S DOWN LOW. THE LOWER END OF THE BLEND FORECASTS HAS  
HIGHS NEVER GETTING OUT OF THE 40S. IN TERMS OF LOWS BOTH DAYS,  
THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS IS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30S WITH MANY  
SPOTS CLOSE ENOUGH TO 32 FOR A LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR  
LOWEST VALLEY SPOTS. THE COLDER END OF THE BLEND OF MODELS WOULD  
DEFINITELY HAVE SNOW FALLING (MAYBE NOT ACCUMULATING) AT ALL  
ELEVATIONS IN EASTERN IDAHO. IF WE CAN GET THE COLDER SCENARIO  
THAT IS STILL DEPICTED IN THE ENSEMBLES (WHICH HELP FEED THE  
BLEND "WHAT IF FORECASTS"), IT COULD BE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF  
THE SEASON FOR SOME OF OUR MORE POPULATED CITIES. PRECIPITATION  
AMOUNTS THIS EARLY ON SHOW 0.30-0.80" OVER 72 HOURS FOR LOWER  
ELEVATIONS, WITH A 10-40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THAT (LOCATION  
DEPENDENT). FOR THE MOUNTAINS, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RIGHT NOW  
PUTS US AT 1.0-1.5" FOR MOST RANGES, WITH AROUND 2" FOR THE BIG  
HOLES AND TETONS. THERE IS A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE WE EXCEED 2"  
THERE AT THE MOMENT. WE SHOULD GET ANOTHER BREAK ON SATURDAY,  
WITH THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO INTRUDE ON KPIH AND  
KIDA FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL FURTHER HELP END THE LOW-END  
CONCERN FOR LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING. ALL MENTION HAS BEEN  
REMOVED IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. STILL EXPECTING MID- TO HIGH-  
LEVEL CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF  
OUR NEXT SYSTEM, WITH VCSH ARRIVING AT KSUN THIS EVENING AND  
THEN INCREASING TO -SHRA OVERNIGHT. AT LEAST VCSH WILL BECOME  
LIKELY AT OTHER TERMINALS AS WELL BY TUESDAY, WITH PRECIP  
CHANCES INCREASING/CIGS LOWERING FURTHER AS TIME GOES ON  
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS  
SOUTHERLY WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO  
15 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN  
MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY  
AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS IN THE 7 TO 8 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE.  
BUT WILL HAVE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ONCE AGAIN EVERYWHERE  
AND WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT COOLING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
 
 
   
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR IDZ051-055.  
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR IDZ052>054.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...01  
LONG TERM...KEYES  
AVIATION...01  
FIRE WEATHER...GK  
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