123  
FXUS65 KPIH 150501 CCA  
AFDPIH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID  
1059 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING  
INTO THURSDAY.  
 
- NEARLY ALL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN ABOVE ABOUT 7,000  
FEET, WITH LIMITED TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT A FEW PASSES.  
 
- COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
CONTINUE AS LOW PRESSURE EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST  
CORNER TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS MORNING, WE SAW SNOW FALLING DOWN TO  
ALMOST 6000FT (NOT ACCUMULATING THOUGH UNTIL YOU GOT TO 7000FT  
OR HIGHER) IN SOME SPOTS DUE TO HEAVIER BANDS AND ALSO HEAVIER  
SHOWERS AND STORM. SNOW LEVELS LOOKED A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT, BUT  
FEEL WHAT THE OFFICIAL BLEND OF MODELS FORECAST WAS TOO HIGH  
AGAIN. WE PUSHED IT BACK TOWARD THE LOWEST END OF THE RANGE.  
FOR TONIGHT, THAT PUTS THEM AROUND 6500-7500FT ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND BETWEEN 7500-9000FT ELSEWHERE. OF NOTE,  
THAT STILL IS 500FT OR MORE HIGHER THAN THE ACTUAL LOWEST END OF  
THE SNOW LEVEL RANGE WE COULD SEE. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS OUR  
TERRITORY TOMORROW NIGHT, WE PUSHED SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND  
6500-7000FT. THAT IS STILL 300-500 HIGHER THAN THE LOWEST END.  
EVEN WITH LOWER SNOW LEVELS, IMPACTFUL SNOW BELOW 9000FT DOESN'T  
APPEAR TO BE A BIG ISSUE AT THE MOMENT. CURRENT FORECASTS ONLY  
HAVE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2" FOR  
ANYWHERE ABOVE 7500FT, AND ANYTHING ABOVE 6" WELL ABOVE OUR  
9000FT THRESHOLD FOR AN ADVISORY OR WARNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY,  
TEMPERATURES GET MUCH COLDER AGAIN. WE SHOULD BE ABOUT 10  
DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY, VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
THE DAY BEGINS THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE FAR SE  
CORNER OF THE GEM STATE. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURE WISE WITH 40S AND LOW 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE  
AREA WITH 30S AND 40S FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES (CLOSER TO THE LOW).  
WE'LL SEE PRECIP AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-15 WILL HAVE TO  
WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS START  
TO IMPROVE. COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS WILL SUPPORT  
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN (ABOVE 7000 FT)  
ON THURSDAY. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL QUICKLY  
TRANSITION TO A RIDGE ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO  
SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH  
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE  
COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL FRI AND SAT BUT GET CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS  
BY SUNDAY BUT THAT'S WHEN THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE ONCE  
AGAIN. MODELS SHOW A POTENT TROUGH ONCE AGAIN MOVING INTO THE  
PACIFIC NW WHICH WILL BRING PRECIP AND CLOUDS BACK INTO THE  
FORECAST FOR EASTERN IDAHO BY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT  
ESPECIALLY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. ALONG WITH  
THE PRECIP, WE'LL SEE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY  
AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH VALLEY  
RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES. COULD EVEN SEE SOME VALLEY PRECIP CHANGE  
OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AM BUT IT'S STILL UNCLEAR HOW  
MUCH PRECIP WILL REMAIN BY THAT POINT. EITHER WAY, AN ACTIVE FALL  
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE  
THIRD WEEK OF OCTOBER.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1048 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MOISTURE STILL AFTER AROUND MIDNIGHT. CIGS  
WILL LIKELY BE MVFR, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SHOWERS ON STATION.  
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BRING IFR CONDITIONS. HREF GUIDANCE  
TOOK OUT THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT FOR KSUN, KBYI AND KPIH. LEFT VCTS  
MENTION FOR KIDA AND KDIJ FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
BROUGHT VCTS BACK IN FOR AFTERNOON FOR KSUN, KBYI, AND KPIH. WINDS  
WILL BE LIGHT OVERALL FOR EVENING. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BY  
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. LEFT THE WINDS VRB10G20KT IN  
THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST SITES DUE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, OVERALL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY. THERE IS A  
HINT SITES WILL TREND NEAR VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.  
HOWEVER, ANY VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED TOMORROW  
EVENING AND TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
NO BROAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE ROTATES  
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WETTING RAINS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW  
ARE LIKELY STARTING TODAY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, EXPANDING  
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS LINGER THURSDAY.  
 
 
   
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...KEYES  
LONG TERM...MCKAUGHAN  
AVIATION...TW  
FIRE WEATHER...01  
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