102
FXUS65 KPIH 162331
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
531 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER THROUGH TONIGHT.
- DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, BEFORE OUR NEXT, FASTER-MOVING STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2025
EAST IDAHO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH, NOW SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ARE HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY
ABOVE 7000 FT ELEVATION. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS, LOW CLOUDS, PATCHY
FOG, AND BREEZY WINDS ALSO CONTINUE. SHOWERS LINGER THIS EVENING
MAINLY EAST OF I-15, THEN TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE WY BORDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. POCKETS OF FOG ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUPPORT STRATUS OVER
FOG. AT THIS TIME, DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. NBM
PROBABILITIES SUPPORT A 10-15% CHANCE OF VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS
3 MILES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY IN VERY FEW LOCATIONS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE IDAHO PANHANDLE INTO MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE ISLAND
PARK/YELLOWSTONE REGION. OTHERWISE EAST IDAHO WILL TREND TOWARD
DRIER AND SUNNIER WEATHER HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2025
WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES, GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S,
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT'LL
SWING NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING POPS AND QPF BACK
A BIT NOW WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKING TO STAY MORE TO THE NORTH
COMPARED TO A FEW DAYS AGO. WE'LL STILL INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SOME HIGH ELEVATION PRECIP CHANCES BUT NOT SURE NOW HOW MUCH PRECIP,
IF ANY, WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY. IT
WILL HELP BRING COOLER TEMPS BACK INTO THE AREA THOUGH AFTER A MORE
MILD SUNDAY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB ABOVE 50 THROUGHOUT MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF EASTERN IDAHO. UPPER
FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY BUT
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2025
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING, EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT OUR TAF
SITES. GENERALLY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KSUN, KBYI, AND
KPIH BY THE 02-03Z TIMEFRAME. AS KSUN SWITCHES TO ITS USUAL
NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT, THAT SHOULD HELP CLEAR OUT THE
LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN PLAGUING THE SITE ALL AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE KIDA AREA BY AROUND 03Z,
BUT MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THESE SHOWERS WELL, SO WE WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. KDIJ WILL REMAIN AT MVFR
CIGS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, UNTIL AROUND 07Z TONIGHT.
THERE WILL REMAIN ABOUT A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
AROUND KPIH AND KIDA DUE TO THE REMAINING MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS AS EVIDENCED IN THE SCT025 LINE IN THE TAFS. FRIDAY
WILL BE A DRIER DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2025
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS
THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, BEFORE OUR NEXT TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY. WINDS MAY BE A BIT BREEZIER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...AMM
FIRE WEATHER...01
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