303
FXUS65 KPIH 100430
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
930 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- POCKETS OF FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH MIDWEEK
- PRECIPITATION RETURNS AS EARLY THURSDAY
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MST SUN NOV 9 2025
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TO START OUT THIS WEEK, EVEN WITH LOW
ZIPPING BY JUST OUR NORTH. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, AND MAYBE
AN UPTICK IN WIND GUSTS HERE AND THERE. WE DO EXPECT SOME
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND FOG. WE SAW IT BRIEFLY IN THE STANLEY
BASIN AND EXPECT A REPEAT TONIGHT, EVEN AS WE SEE THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE NEXT LOW CLIPPING THE AREA. WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT MAYBE NOT FOG DUE TO SOME "MIXING" OF
AIRMASSES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB A BIT EACH
DAY, WITH A 3-8 DEGREE JUMP MONDAY. WARMER SPOTS LIKELY PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S, INCLUDING WITHIN THE INVERSION
LAYER AND WHERE WE FULLY MIX OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MST SUN NOV 9 2025
WE STAY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.
WE WOULD EXPECT MORE POCKETS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH MORE 60S EXPECTED FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS. CURRENT TRENDS HAVE HELD WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE MIGHT A LITTLE MORE EVIDENCE IN THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
OF THE NEXT OVERALL LOW TO COME ACROSS IDAHO IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS
VS A MORE CONSOLIDATED PUSH HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS LENDS
ITSELF TO THE IDEA OF THE FIRST ROUND COMING THURSDAY INSTEAD
OF HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. ONCE THE NEXT STORM AND
PATTERN CHANGE HAPPENS, WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK TO SEEING HIGHS
IN THE 40S DOWN LOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 925 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2025
CLOUD CONDITIONS STAY SKC-FEW ABOVE FL150, EXCEPT FOR SOME
POSSIBLE VALLEY STRATUS AT KDIJ AND KSUN IN THE MORNING. AN
EXTENDED WEAK PERCENTAGE OF MARGINAL VFR IS ALSO IN THE DATA FOR
KPIH AND KIDA, BUT STILL DOESN'T GET TO THE LEVEL WHERE IT IS
WORTH MENTIONING, AT LESS THAN 15 PERCENT RISK. THIS STRATUS
COULD WIND UP BEING BR INSTEAD, SO IT MAY BE SEEN IN VSBY
INSTEAD.
WIND IS FORECAST TO BE EVEN MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, ESPECIALLY
AT KSUN AND KPIH. BUT OVERALL IT STAYS AT 8KT OR LESS AND
MOSTLY FOLLOWS THE SLOPE-VALLEY EFFECT, ESPECIALLY AT KSUN.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KEYES
LONG TERM...KEYES
AVIATION...MESSICK
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