803
FXUS65 KPIH 121156
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
456 AM MST WED NOV 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. MOST
PRECIPITATION STARTS FRIDAY.
- COOL TEMPERATURES RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 117 AM MST WED NOV 12 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER
WESTERN IDAHO WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE.
MODELS SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO MOVE EAST OF IDAHO BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, 12 TO 18 DEGREES,
TODAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT CONTINUED OVERALL LIGHT WINDS UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. LOOK FOR MOSTLY SOUTHERLY BREEZY WINDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 TO 35 MPH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 PM MST TUE NOV 11 2025
OUR MILD WEATHER BEGINS TO SEE CHANGES ARRIVING IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY WILL BE OUR LAST MILD DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S AREA WIDE, BUT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK
UP AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON.
WIND GUSTS ON THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE
VALLEYS, BUT START TO PICK UP TO CLOSER TO 30 MPH ON RIDGE TOPS
AND POPS INCREASING TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT IN THE SAWTOOTHS AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY
MORNING, PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO 50 TO 80 PERCENT AREA-
WIDE AS WE ARE INFLUENCED BY TROUGHING MOVING INTO EASTERN
IDAHO. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS US IN BETWEEN TWO LOWS (ONE IN
CANADA AND THE OTHER OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA) BY FRIDAY
EVENING WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE LOWS IN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SPOTS THAT WOULD KEEP US DRIER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE NBM
IS CERTAINLY GOING THE WAY OF THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT. BOTH
MODELS CAN AGREE ON THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY,
DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S FOR FRIDAY, SATURDAY,
AND SUNDAY BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND
MONDAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INCREASE WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 35 MPH OUT
ACROSS THE ARCO DESERT. WITH THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCE, SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, STILL AROUND 8500-9000 FEET IN THE
SAWTOOTHS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. IT WILL FALL TO AROUND
6000-6500 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING AND SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN
ABOVE VALLEY FLOORS AT THIS TIME IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WITH THE NBM SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF SNOW ON FRIDAY. OTHER SNOW
PROBABILITIES SHOW ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TWO INCHES OF
SNOW IN STANLEY ON FRIDAY AND ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TWO
INCHES OF SNOW ON EMIGRATION PASS. IT WILL BE ABOVE 7500 FEET
WHERE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE CLOSER TO 2 TO 5 INCHES. GENERALLY,
QPF DOWN IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WILL
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 453 AM MST WED NOV 12 2025
EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND OVERALL LIGHT WINDS AS OUR
AREA REMAINS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT MID-LEVEL TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SETTING UP BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...TW
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