350
FXUS65 KPIH 301814
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1114 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW LASTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ROUND IS ALONG THE 84/86
CORRIDOR AND SOUTH INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT WEEK WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LIKELY ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS
MORNING. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR BASICALLY FROM THE
BIG HOLES TO TWIN FALLS AND POINTS SOUTH. WE WILL LIKELY
FLURRIES/DUSTING ACROSS MOST AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO
EXCEPT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
SAWTOOTHS AND SURROUNDING AREAS. WE MAY SEE UP TO 1" ALONG THE
84/86 CORRIDOR. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTH HILLS, ALBION
MOUNTAINS, AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS SHOULD SEE UP TO 2", WITH
2-5" ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS CLOSER TO THE UTAH BORDER. WE MAY
SEE A BRIEF CONVERGENCE BAND SET UP FROM POCATELLO SHIFTING WEST
TOWARD BURLEY BEFORE DYING OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
"ENHANCEMENT" FROM THIS BAND SHOULD BE MINIMAL. IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL SHOULD BE PRETTY LIMITED EVEN FOR HIGHER PASSES, ALTHOUGH
ENOUGH SNOW COULD FALL OVER EMIGRATION SUMMIT TO CREATE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TRAVEL ISSUES FOR A FEW HOURS. AT THE MOMENT, WE ARE
STILL NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING REQUIRING ANY TYPE OF
STATEMENT/HEADLINE. THE WEATHER WILL QUIET DOWN QUITE A BIT
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WE ARE LIKELY GOING TO SEE SOME STRATUS AND PATCHY
FREEZING FOG ACROSS AROUND TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. AS
EXPECTED, VERY FEW IF ANY PLACES WILL TOP OUT ABOVE 40 THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SAT NOV 29 2025
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BREAK ON
MONDAY UNDER INFLUENCE OF TRANSITORY RIDGE. THE NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODEL MEANS SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOWFALL AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS, AND 2-4" ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE INTERSTATES. BEYOND WEDNESDAY THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
PRESENT IN THE MODELS. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS FAVOR BUILDING A RIDGE
OFF THE COAST, WITH A COUPLE CLUSTERS ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP A
REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER EAST IDAHO. BUT THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH FLATTEN THE RIDGE QUICKLY AND INTRODUCE FAST ACTIVE
FLOW INTO THE PACNW BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
NBM MODERATES TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BUT MAINTAINS WEAKLY UNSETTLED FLOW WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS PUSHED THROUGH EAST IDAHO SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN FORECAST TODAY, BRINGING VFR CIGS TO ALL SITES
EXCEPT BYI, WHERE LOW STRATUS HAS CREPT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THERE ARE EVEN ODDS IN BYI BREAKING OUT TO MVFR OR VFR THIS
AFTERNOON OR STAYING UNDER IFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE
MAY ALSO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN RETURNING LOW-END MVFR OR IFR CIGS
TO PIH AND IDA AND DIJ, BUT KEPT THE TREND GOING FOR NOW.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, HOWEVER.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KEYES
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...DMH
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