648
FXUS65 KPIH 031122
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
422 AM MST WED DEC 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN ANOTHER WEAK
STORM ARRIVES THURSDAY MORNING. MUCH HEAVIER MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
- HIGHS AND LOWS AFTER TONIGHT WILL BE ON AN UNSTEADY WARMING
TREND AND STAYING VERY MILD FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.
- WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN AND ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST WED DEC 3 2025
SOMETHING OF A BREATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH SOME
FLURRIES WINDING UP IN CASSIA COUNTY THIS MORNING AND THEN LATE
TONIGHT SOME FLURRIES DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER
HIGHLANDS. THE MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES, WITH THE NEXT
IMPULSE MOVING IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING THU
MORNING. THIS IS ANOTHER WEAK STORM THAT DOESN'T GENERATE MUCH
PRECIPITATION; ONCE AGAIN, IT LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA EVEN IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. ONCE AGAIN THERE
IS A PRECIPITATION SHADOW FOR ALL THE WOOD AND LOST RIVER
BASINS. WITH A LET UP EITHER THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING, ANOTHER
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THIS MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS
EVENT WILL BE BRINGING MUCH MORE MOISTURE THAN THE TWO PREVIOUS
SNOW EVENTS. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER, SO IT WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN
AT THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ELEVATIONS, BUT ABOVE THE ALL SNOW
LEVEL THE ACCUMULATION WILL RATE A WINTER STORM WARNING.
THIS WILL COUPLE WITH SOME VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO ACTUALLY
USE THE LOWER THRESHOLDS FOR WINTER STORM CRITERIA. AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, IT MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY OR A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ON FRI AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH IT
TAKING A WHILE FOR THE WIND TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH.
WARMING STARTS WEDNESDAY, AND A GRADUAL WARMING IN THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW MEANS LOW ELEVATION TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY
, LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN, AND SOUTHERN HILLS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST WED DEC 3 2025
SAT/SAT NIGHT CONTINUES TO HAVE THIS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THAT KEEPS UP THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. ON SUN/SUN NIGHT THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING AND SHIFTING THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER NORTH, WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE SOLUTIONS INDICATING
THIS, WHILE THE REMAINDER KEEP IT ABOUT THE SAME AS SAT. BY
MON, THE WEST COAST RIDGE IS DOMINATING STRONGLY. THE FLOW IS
STILL NORTHWEST, AND THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION THREAT OUT THERE
BARELY RISES ABOVE 25 PERCENT RISK, FEW CLOUDS AND JUST BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS MEANS MON IS THE WARMEST DAY IN THE NEXT
WEEK. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES FOR MON NIGHT AND ALL
OF TUE, BESIDES SHIFTING, POSSIBLY, TO EITHER OVERHEAD OR TO THE
EAST. THIS WOULD OPEN UP THE RISK OF SOME PRECIPITATION WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE FLATTER FLOW.
THIS MAKES SUN AND MON THE DRIEST DAYS. EVERY PERIOD APPEARS TO
BE WINDY TO VERY WINDY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 417 AM MST WED DEC 3 2025
IT WILL BE A TOUGH MORNING AT ALL AIRDROMES SAVE KIDA. KDIJ,
KPIH, KBYI, AND KSUN ALL HAVE HAD WILDLY SHIFTING VSBY AND CIG
WITH THE STRATUS AND BR/FZFG ROLLING IN AND OUT UNDER LIGHT
WIND. ONLY KIDA SEEMS TO HAVE AVOIDED THE ISSUES WITH SOME
DRYING NORTHERLY WIND. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ALL
THE AIRPORTS SHOULD HAVE A BREAK WITH CIG AND VSBY UNLIMITED.
HOWEVER, STRATUS SHOULD REAR ITS UGLY HEAD AGAIN TONIGHT AT
KDIJ, KPIH, AND KIDA. ALL THREE HAVE A RISK OF EVENING OR LATE
NIGHT IFR FOR CIG. WIND IS STAYING AT OR BELOW 10KT.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MESSICK
LONG TERM...MESSICK
AVIATION...MESSICK
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