185
FXUS65 KPIH 050936
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
236 AM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
- WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
- LIGHTER RAIN AND SNOW ACCUMLATIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- VERY WINDY AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 206 AM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ITS HEAVIEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST, PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION RATES
DROP PRECIPITOUSLY. THE LOWEST THREAT PERIOD WILL BE SAT NIGHT,
WHEN THINGS TAKE SOMETHING OF A BREAK AT THAT POINT. HAVE NOT
CHANGED ANYTHING IN THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING PRODUCT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT NOT AS QUICKLY
AS PREVIOUS THINKING, WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW 40 DEG F
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WARMING CONTINUES SAT FOR THE HIGHS, THEN
THE CLEARING SKIES SAT NIGHT PRODUCE THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS
FOR THE NEXT SIX DAYS. THE COLD START WILL BRING SOME SLIGHT
COOLING FOR SUN, THEN INCOMING CLOUDINESS WARMS THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS SOME.
WIND STARTING LATE TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND THE
LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BE VERY WINDY, AND
CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
IS DUE TO THE EXIT OF THE LOW TO THE EAST AND SHOULD BE A
WESTERLY WIND. A WIND ADVISORY IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY BUT
WILL LET ANOTHER SHIFT GET A LOOK AS THIS TIME AS IT IS JUST
SHORT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 206 AM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THIS PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MON, THE POINT AT WHICH CLUSTER
ANALYSES WERE NOT AVAILABLE. THIS RIDGE HAS AMPLIFIED, PUTTING
HIGHER 500MB HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IMPLIES MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES; THIS IS BROUGHT OUT IN THE MOS GUIDANCE
WHICH INDICATES TEMPERATURE EXCEEDING 50 DEG F BY TUE IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS, DESPITE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AT 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OR GREATER, DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. THE OTHER REMARKABLE
ASPECT OF THIS PERIOD IS STRONG WIND FORCAST NEARLY NON-STOP
UNTIL THU AFTERNOON. THE EUROPEAN MOS INDICATES LOWER WIND
STRENGTHS, BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT. THE EUROPEAN SUITE ALSO HAS
LOWER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, WHICH
MAY BE MORE CORRECT BASED ON CURRENT PERFORMANCE OF THE PRODUCT
SUITES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 938 PM MST THU DEC 4 2025
FIRST ROUND OF SNOW IS EXITING MOST OF THE TAF SITES.
DIJ WILL LIKELY SEE SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS FROM SNOW THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLE
LOW STRATUS AND EVEN FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT
SURE IF THEY'LL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP. IDA SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FOG. MODELS REALLY HANG ON TO THE LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. AT THE SAME TIME, WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT ROUND OF
MOISTURE ARRIVES. SO THERE'S QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF
CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR IDZ053-072-
073.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR IDZ058>066.
SHORT TERM...MESSICK
LONG TERM...MESSICK
AVIATION...13
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