747
FXUS65 KPIH 071208
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
508 AM MST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW, SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO VALLEY
FLOORS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT IN MOUNTAIN REGIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- TURNING SHARPLY COLDER WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 259 AM MST WED JAN 7 2026
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PASSING THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. YET AGAIN, WE ARE SEEING A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW TODAY WITH RAIN IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN AND SNOW UP IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
CONTINUE IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT IS IN THESE AREAS WHERE THE HIGHER
SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. GENERALLY, AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED AROUND THE STANLEY AND GALENA SUMMIT AREAS WITH
HIGHER TOTALS ABOVE PASS LEVEL AN ONLY AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO
FROM HAILEY TO KETCHUM. SIMILARLY, ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECT AROUND THE ISLAND PARK AREA. THE HREF SHOWS A PROBABILITY OF
ABOUT 30 TO 40 PERCENT OF AN ADDITIONAL 6 INCHES OF SNOW ON PINE
CREEK PASS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND ABOUT A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A TOTAL OF 10 INCHES OF SNOW ON EMIGRATION SUMMIT. AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND LOWER SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN THIS EVENING, IT COMES THROUGH WITH ENOUGH ENERGY TO
LOOK A BIT CONVECTIVE ON CURRENT CAMS. THE NBM IS GIVING A 5 TO 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING WITH ITS PASSAGE. AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S
TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 MPH FOR MANY. THERE'S A
20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE GUSTS WILL REACH OF EXCEED 45 MPH FROM MUD
LAKE TO IDAHO FALLS TO RIRIE, BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE AREA AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
THAT SAID, SOME OF THE USUAL "WINDY" SPOTS UP THAT WAY WILL BE WINDY
TODAY.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY AND BRING SOME SNOW TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. FOR
MOST, IT WILL BE ABOUT A HALF INCH TO AN INCH IN THE EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THAT FALLS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE HREF CURRENTLY SHOWS A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW FOR POCATELLO TO FIRTH BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY, BUT THE PROBABILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW. THE WIND WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND
SOUTH HILLS WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 MPH AND A 30 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH FROM BURLEY TO OAKLEY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
EXPECT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
EAST WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BUT
MINIMAL IMPACTS. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN
THE SAME REGION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. EXPECT INVERSION LIKE CONDITIONS BY THE EARLY PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND 30S
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME LOWER 40S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY
MAINLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL INVERSION. LOWS
SINGLE DIGITS IN TO TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE
STRONGEST WINDS THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A LOT OF 15
TO 25 MPH SPEEDS THEN UNDER RIDGE EXPECTING VERY LIGHT WINDS
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 505 AM MST WED JAN 7 2026
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE BACK TODAY. CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
AREN'T QUITE AS PESSIMISTIC AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED TO BE WITH MOST
CIGS REMAINING MVFR TO VFR. WIND GUSTS ARE BACK TODAY, AROUND 20 TO
30 KTS AT IDA, PIH, AND BYI. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER
TODAY, EXPECT QUICK DROPS IN CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR IF
NOT IFR, AS RAINFALL CHANGES OVER TO SNOW. TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH IDA, PIH, AND BYI IS CURRENTLY LOOKING TO
BE AROUND 04-07Z THURSDAY. SNOW TAPERS OFF ON THURSDAY, BUT
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ON THURSDAY AROUND BYI.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR IDZ060-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
IDZ064-066-072-073.
SHORT TERM...AMM
LONG TERM...GK
AVIATION...AMM
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