164
FXUS65 KPIH 080505
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1005 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW, SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO VALLEY
FLOORS TONIGHT.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT IN MOUNTAIN REGIONS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
- TURNING SHARPLY COLDER TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 956 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED TO
08/12Z (500 AM) TO MATCH UP WITH THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT, AS
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, KEEPING
CONDITIONS WET FOR MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS, WHERE ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES ARE FORECAST
WITH 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE PASS LEVEL AND LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL COME CRASHING DOWN LATE
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NATIONAL
BLEND AND HREF PROBABILITIES RANGE ROUGHLY 40% TO 60% FOR CHANCE
OF HALF AN INCH ALONG I-84/I-86 FROM BURLEY TO POCATELLO AND
ALONG I-15 HEADING NORTH TOWARD IDAHO FALLS. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTS WILL
RANGE 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN TODAY, WITH
MAGNITUDES A TOUCH STRONGER ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY AND SOUTH HILLS REGIONS, WHERE MOUNTAIN TOPS AND
LOCALIZED AREAS ARE LIKELY TO OBSERVE 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS.
NATIONAL BLEND PROBABILITIES OF REACHING MINIMUM ADVISORY
CRITERIA, 45 MPH GUSTS, IS AROUND 35% TO 45% PERCENT IN OAKLEY
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND 55% TO 65% IN ALBION MID- TO LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS ONLY UP TO AROUND A 30% CHANCE ALONG
MOST OF I-84 AND I-86 DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. GIVEN THE LOCALIZED
AND HIGH ELEVATION NATURE OF THE ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS, WE HAVE
OPTED TO NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY. NEVERTHELESS, ANYONE TRAVELING
ALONG SH-27 AND/OR SH-77 ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
BREEZY CROSSWINDS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY IN OUR MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS EASTWARD, WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IN WY BY THURSDAY
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR-
NORMAL BEGINNING THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S., AND BASICALLY LEAVES EASTERN IDAHO MOSTLY DRY. WE DO EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS, AND
PERHAPS FOR PART OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SAWTOOTHS AND FRANK CHURCH.
WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COUPLE
OF STORMS TOPPING THE RIDGE. THAT WOULD MAINLY BE AROUND ISLAND PARK
IF THAT HAPPENS. THE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A SLOW WARMING TREND, BUT
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO GET TOO FAR ABOVE AVERAGE. WE
WILL LIKELY NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR INVERSION CONDITIONS, AND ANY
IMPACTS FROM THAT INCLUDING FOG AND STRATUS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
CLUSTERS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
THE HEAVIEST AND MOST IMPACTS TO AVIATION SEEM TO BE AROUND BYI
AND PIH TONIGHT, WITH LESSER CHANCES FURTHER NORTH. EXPECT A
BREAK OF A COUPLE HOURS FROM THE CURRENT BATCH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST IDAHO BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH ARRIVES. THEN THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A CONVERGENCE BAND ARRIVING FOR THE NORTH WHICH
WOULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT IDA AND DIJ DEPENDING ON HOW IT SETS UP
AND WHEN IT ARRIVES. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND
EXACTLY WHO SEES SNOW AND WHO DOESN'T. ALTHOUGH AM SEEING MORE
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW SETTING UP AROUND MIDDAY FOR DIJ. EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES ON THURSDAY. SOME DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
IMPACT TAF SITES ONCE MORE.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR IDZ060-063-
064-066-072-073.
UPDATE...MESSICK
SHORT TERM...CROPP
LONG TERM...KEYES
AVIATION...13
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