695
FXUS65 KPIH 092047
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
147 PM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL LINGERS ACROSS THE ISLAND PARK REGION
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRINGING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
- GRADUAL WARMING BEGINS THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 147 PM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGE ALONG COAST WITH NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
INTO IDAHO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE
REGION MAY BE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH AREAS OF LOW/MID STRATUS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN TO PRODUCE LIGHT SEEDER/FEEDER SNOWS. OUTSIDE OF THE
ISLAND PARK AREA WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. MAIN CONCERN
TONIGHT WILL BE FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WHERE SUN HAS BEEN
AVAILABLE TODAY OVER YESTERDAY'S SNOWFALL. BASED ON SHORT-TERM
ENSEMBLES, THE BEST CONFIDENCE APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE CACHE VALLEY
AND THE INL/ARCO DESERT REGIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN (WHERE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES NO SURFACE SNOW IN PLACE). EVEN THEN, MODEL
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO SUPPORT STRATUS FORMATION OVER FOG TONIGHT.
BROADBRUSHED PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT, LASTING THROUGH EARLY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 147 PM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME WILL BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL, WITH DRY AND
WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS. THE SOLE CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WINDS LIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL SPAN THE 30S AND 40S, WARMING TO
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT
POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY EVENING, AT
THE EARLIEST. APPROXIMATELY 40 PERCENT OF TOTAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTER
MEMBERS SUGGEST A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COME LATE NEXT
WEEK/WEEKEND, HOWEVER, OVER HALF THE MEMBERS FAVOR A PERSISTENT
RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE ONLY CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR
LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY GIVEN THE
RECENT SNOW AND SUNSHINE TODAY/LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED THE MVFR TREND AT KPIH AND
KDIJ BUT HAVE INCLUDED IFR CIGS AT KIDA BY 14Z, WITH A TEMPO TO
TRANSITION FROM MVFR, SUPPORTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE. THE HREF
INDICATES A 65 TO 80 PERCENT LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KIDA 06Z
THROUGH 17Z AND A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS 06Z THROUGH
14Z, WITH LESS THAN 50% CHANCE OF IFR AT KDIJ. HOWEVER, NATIONAL
BLEND PROBABILITIES ARE NOT AS HIGH, WITH UP TO 50% CHANCE OF ONLY
MVFR CIGS AT KIDA AND ONLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT KDIJ
BEGINNING AT 02Z, INCREASING TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT BETWEEN 07Z AND
17Z. IT FEATURES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR AT KSUN
AND KBYI THROUGH MORNING.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...CROPP
AVIATION...CROPP
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