381
FXUS65 KPIH 100530
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1030 PM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL LINGERS ACROSS THE ISLAND PARK REGION
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRINGING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
- GRADUAL WARMING BEGINS THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 147 PM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGE ALONG COAST WITH NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
INTO IDAHO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE
REGION MAY BE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH AREAS OF LOW/MID STRATUS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN TO PRODUCE LIGHT SEEDER/FEEDER SNOWS. OUTSIDE OF THE
ISLAND PARK AREA WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. MAIN CONCERN
TONIGHT WILL BE FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WHERE SUN HAS BEEN
AVAILABLE TODAY OVER YESTERDAY'S SNOWFALL. BASED ON SHORT-TERM
ENSEMBLES, THE BEST CONFIDENCE APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE CACHE VALLEY
AND THE INL/ARCO DESERT REGIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN (WHERE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES NO SURFACE SNOW IN PLACE). EVEN THEN, MODEL
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO SUPPORT STRATUS FORMATION OVER FOG TONIGHT.
BROADBRUSHED PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT, LASTING THROUGH EARLY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 147 PM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME WILL BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL, WITH DRY AND
WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS. THE SOLE CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WINDS LIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL SPAN THE 30S AND 40S, WARMING TO
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT
POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY EVENING, AT
THE EARLIEST. APPROXIMATELY 40 PERCENT OF TOTAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTER
MEMBERS SUGGEST A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COME LATE NEXT
WEEK/WEEKEND, HOWEVER, OVER HALF THE MEMBERS FAVOR A PERSISTENT
RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 953 PM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
AND HAVE ADDED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT DIJ, PIH AND IDA. THINK
WINDS A BIT TOO STRONG FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. DROPPED CEILINGS
TO MVFR AT PIH AND IDA NEAR 12Z AND AT DIJ AT 09Z. WENT MAINLY
BACK TO VFR AFTER 18Z SATURDAY AT ALL SITES. FOR NOW KEPT IT VFR
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE WINDS MAINLY DROPPING TO
UNDER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND REMAINING LIGHT SATURDAY.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...CROPP
AVIATION...GK
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