920
FXUS65 KPIH 111123
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
423 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- POCKETS OF PATCHY, DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER EASTERN IDAHO AGAIN TODAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER SOME LOW
STRATUS/PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE SOME SEEDER-FEEDER FLURRIES, BUT NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH NO "REAL" ACCUMULATION OUT OF ANY OF IT.
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ARE A BIT TRICKIER TO SEE ON SATELLITE
TONIGHT DUE TO THOSE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH, BUT HAVE
SEEN SOME OF IT AROUND THE DRIGGS/TETON VALLEY AREA, AROUND OUR
OFFICE AT TIMES, AND IN THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN BASED ON
SATELLITE, ITD CAMERAS, AND VISIBILITY REPORTS. WHILE COVERAGE
AREA OF PATCHY FOG IS MINIMAL, VISIBILITY DOES DROP QUICKLY DOWN
TO A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IF YOU HAVE TO DRIVE THROUGH IT. BY
11 AM, THERE IS A LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VISIBILITY
BELOW 5 MILES ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO FOR THE REST OF TODAY. AFTER
THIS MORNING'S PATCHY DENSE FOG, THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOW 40S. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH ABOUT A 20 TO 25 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VISIBILITY DROPPING TO 5 MILES OR LESS THROUGHOUT EASTERN
IDAHO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN AN INACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE SOLE CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND DEGRADED AIR QUALITY AS A RESULT
OF TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND
WINDS LIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL SPAN THE
30S AND 40S, REACHING NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTH HILLS
REGIONS WILL WARM TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50F BY EARLY TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. AS INDICATED BY THE 500MB ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AMONGST ENSEMBLES THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN INTO
AT LEAST EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO KEEP US DRY, BUT PATCHY DENSE FOG ALSO
CONTINUES TO CAUSE PROBLEMS AT SOME OF OUR TAF SITES. PARTICULARLY
AT DIJ WHERE FOG HAS BEEN IN AND OUT OF THE TERMINAL, BRINGING
BKN/OVC CLOUDS AT 001 TO 002 AND VIS DOWN TO A 1/4SM AT TIMES. FOG
HAS BEEN SLOSHING IN AND OUT OF PIH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT, TOO,
DROPPING VIS DOWN AROUND 2SM AT TIMES. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN DOING A
GREAT JOB AT HANDLING THIS VERY PATCHY DENSE FOG, BUT SEEM TO AGREE
ON IMPROVEMENTS BY 18Z. THE NBM SHOWS ABOUT A 15 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF VIS LESS THAN 5SM AT PIH, IDA, AND DIJ. WILL GO WITH A
TEMPO FOR PIH, IDA, AND DIJ GIVEN WHAT WE'VE SEEN SO FAR
TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL OCCURRENCE, BUT WHERE THE FOG
DOES RETURN, CONDITIONS WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY. THERE'S ANOTHER
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF VIS LESS THAN 5SM AGAIN OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY AT PIH, IDA, AND DIJ.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...AMM
LONG TERM...CROPP
AVIATION...AMM
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