308
FXUS65 KPIH 111723
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1023 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- POCKETS OF PATCHY, DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER EASTERN IDAHO AGAIN TODAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER SOME LOW
STRATUS/PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE SOME SEEDER-FEEDER FLURRIES, BUT NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH NO "REAL" ACCUMULATION OUT OF ANY OF IT.
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ARE A BIT TRICKIER TO SEE ON SATELLITE
TONIGHT DUE TO THOSE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH, BUT HAVE
SEEN SOME OF IT AROUND THE DRIGGS/TETON VALLEY AREA, AROUND OUR
OFFICE AT TIMES, AND IN THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN BASED ON
SATELLITE, ITD CAMERAS, AND VISIBILITY REPORTS. WHILE COVERAGE
AREA OF PATCHY FOG IS MINIMAL, VISIBILITY DOES DROP QUICKLY DOWN
TO A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IF YOU HAVE TO DRIVE THROUGH IT. BY
11 AM, THERE IS A LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VISIBILITY
BELOW 5 MILES ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO FOR THE REST OF TODAY. AFTER
THIS MORNING'S PATCHY DENSE FOG, THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOW 40S. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH ABOUT A 20 TO 25 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VISIBILITY DROPPING TO 5 MILES OR LESS THROUGHOUT EASTERN
IDAHO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN AN INACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE SOLE CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND DEGRADED AIR QUALITY AS A RESULT
OF TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND
WINDS LIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL SPAN THE
30S AND 40S, REACHING NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTH HILLS
REGIONS WILL WARM TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50F BY EARLY TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. AS INDICATED BY THE 500MB ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AMONGST ENSEMBLES THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN INTO
AT LEAST EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
WE CONTINUE TO CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG OR
LOW STRATUS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO WHETHER OR NOT TERMINALS WILL BE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITIES AMONGST
MODELS AND THE PATCHY, DENSE NATURE OF IMPACTS OBSERVED PREVIOUS
MORNINGS. THEREFORE, TEMPOS CONTINUE TO SEEM TO BE THE BEST FORECAST
APPROACH. WHILE THE HREF INDICATES A 15 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS AT KBYI WITH LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ELSEWHERE, THE NATIONAL BLEND
INDICATES AROUND A 15% CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT KPIH, KBYI, AND
KDIJ WITH CLOSER TO 25% CHANCE AT KIDA. THE NBM ALSO CARRIES AROUND
A 20 TO 25 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MVFR VIS (5 MI OR LESS) AT KPIH
AND KIDA BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z WITH LESS CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...AMM
LONG TERM...CROPP
AVIATION...CROPP
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