710
FXUS65 KPIH 112043
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
143 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- POCKETS OF PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHERE OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EAST IDAHO THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW POCKETS OF LOW CLOUD AND
POTENTIAL FOG ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN
AND WITHIN THE BEAR LAKE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST ARE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO ANYTHING MORE THAN A FLURRY OR TWO AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IS UNLIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY,
THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THAT SAID, THE NBM, HREF, AND REFS
PROBABILITIES ARE SPOTTY IN THEIR SUPPORT FOR VISIBILITIES BELOW 5
MILES. WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN FOG FORMATION, OPTED TO LEAVE OUT
OF FORECAST FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY: OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING 15-25 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AND
DAYTIME HIGHS 30-40, NEARING 45 ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND RAFT RIVER REGIONS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WINDS LIGHT THE ENTIRETY OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL SPAN THE 30S AND 40S, REACHING NEAR 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTH HILLS REGIONS WILL WARM TO AROUND 50F
BY MID-WEEK. THE SOLE CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND DEGRADED AIR QUALITY AS A RESULT OF
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS. AN AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED IN
THE NEAR FUTURE TO ALERT OF IMPENDING AIR QUALITY CONCERNS IN THE
FRANKLIN/EASTERN ONEIDA REGION AND POTENTIALLY THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED COME FRIDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER WEST OFF THE COAST. 10 TO 20 PERCENT OF
TOTAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS MEMBERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A PATTERN CHANGE
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
WE CONTINUE TO CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG OR
LOW STRATUS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO WHETHER OR NOT TERMINALS WILL BE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITIES AMONGST
MODELS AND THE PATCHY, DENSE NATURE OF IMPACTS OBSERVED PREVIOUS
MORNINGS. THEREFORE, TEMPOS CONTINUE TO SEEM TO BE THE BEST FORECAST
APPROACH. WHILE THE HREF INDICATES A 15 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS AT KBYI WITH LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ELSEWHERE, THE NATIONAL BLEND
INDICATES AROUND A 15% CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT KPIH, KBYI, AND
KDIJ WITH CLOSER TO 25% CHANCE AT KIDA. THE NBM ALSO CARRIES AROUND
A 20 TO 25 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MVFR VIS (5 MI OR LESS) AT KPIH
AND KIDA BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z WITH LESS CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...CROPP
AVIATION...CROPP
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