957
FXUS65 KPIH 021132
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
432 AM MST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A BRIEF RELATIVE COOLDOWN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE DRY
AND WARMING TREND RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- INVERSIONS MAY BREAK PROVIDED THERE IS SUFFICIENT MIXING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT STAGNANT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST MON FEB 2 2026
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAKING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH CLEARING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS, CLOUDS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY
BY AROUND 7-10 DEGREES. AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY, THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE AREA ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM BY A FEW MORE DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. THE ONLY
CHANGE OF NOTE WILL BE THAT A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA
AND WYOMING WILL GRAZE THE REGION WHICH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AROUND THE ISLAND PARK AREA AND MAYBE INTO THE
TETON VALLEY. HI-RES CAMS AREN'T OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THIS BUT THEY AT LEAST SHOW A SIGNAL SO IT'S AT LEAST
WORTH A MENTION. OTHERWISE, THINGS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
QUIET ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO
LINGER INTO THE EXTENDED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 144 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, GRAZING THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MUCH LIKE THE MONDAY SYSTEM, THIS ONE ALSO CONTAINS LITTLE TO NO
MOISTURE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. SIMILARLY, THE PROBABILITY OF
PRODUCING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MORE THAN A DUSTING ARE AROUND
OR LESS THAN 10%, AND THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, THE RIDGE REBOUNDS OVER THE REGION,
RETURNING EAST IDAHO TO A WARMING TREND AND POTENTIAL STAGNANT
AIR MASS. THERE IS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL CHANGE ARRIVING BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE AND CLUSTERS HINT AT A PATTERN CHANGE
BY LATE WEEKEND AS A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. CURRENT ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THIS TRANSITION,
PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THE NBM INTRODUCES LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ARE WE CONFIDENT ON THIS? NOT
AT ALL. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERNS CAN BE HARD TO BREAK
DOWN, AND MODELS CAN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DOING SO ESPECIALLY
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. BUT IT WILL BE WORTH KEEPING ON EYE ON
THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 432 AM MST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO TERMINALS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL TURN S/SW BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON IN
THE 7-10 KT RANGE OUTSIDE OF KSUN. AFTER SOME BRIEF CLEARING
LATER TODAY, CLOUDS WILL LIKELY RETURN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
OPERATIONAL THRESHOLDS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR IDZ054-059.
SHORT TERM...MCKAUGHAN
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...MCKAUGHAN
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