187
FXUS65 KPIH 272027
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
127 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM TODAY WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS RETURNING LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE SNAKE
PLAIN WITH OBSERVED GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO EAST
IDAHO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A BROADER PACIFIC LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER
NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE
UNSEASONABLY WARM, WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
50S. HIGH-RESOLUTION ENSEMBLES INDICATE A 40-55% CHANCE OF
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 60 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
RIVER SOUTHWEST OF POCATELLO.
AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW SHIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY
ALLOW FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN REACHING
VALLEY FLOORS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MINIMAL, IF ANY, ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE SNOW LEVELS
RISE TO BETWEEN 6,500 AND 7,500 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY ELEVATION-DEPENDENT.
THE SAWTOOTHS, BIG HOLE RANGE, AND THE BEAR RIVER RANGE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS AT 2-4 INCHES, WELL
BELOW ANY THRESHOLDS OF CONCERN FOR HEADLINES. THE PROBABILITY
OF RECEIVING MORE THAN 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS LESS THAN 40%
FOR EVEN THESE HIGH-ELEVATION AREAS.
A BRIEF TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A DRY REPRIEVE TUESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES UP
SLIGHTLY, WITH A 50-60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 60 DEGREES ACROSS
THE MAGIC VALLEY AND RAFT RIVER REGIONS. THIS TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, USHERING IN ANOTHER MILD
BUT UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN
RAIN/SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN AS SUCH INTO
MIDDAY SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP SHORTLY ACROSS
THE VALLEY TERMINALS TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25
KT RANGE EXPECTED. KDIJ AND KSUN WILL SEE WINDS GENERALLY AROUND
10 KTS. ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET AND THESE LIGHTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY SATURDAY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE END,
AND JUST BEYOND, THE CURRENT 18Z CYCLE ON SATURDAY.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DMH
AVIATION...MCKAUGHAN
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