951
FXUS65 KPIH 282027
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
127 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND VERY HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS RETURNING TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES MID WEEK WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A COMPLEX LOW-PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AN ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN AND WILL STRETCH INTO AN ELONGATED DEFORMATION ZONE LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS EAST IDAHO. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT, GRADUALLY SPREADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH
LIQUID TOTALS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION. MOST
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LESS THAN 0.10" OF LIQUID THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT SHORT-RANGE HIGH-RESOLUTION ENSEMBLES
(HREF/CAMS) SUGGEST A 35-45% PROBABILITY OF A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS, SAWTOOTHS, AND BIG HOLE MOUNTAINS
REACHING 0.10-0.20". WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING SNOW LEVELS
WELL ABOVE 7,000 FT, VALLEY IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO LIGHT
RAIN.
THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW OPENS AND PROGRESSES THROUGH NORTHERN
NEVADA AND UTAH AS AN OPEN TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS EAST IDAHO. A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO SLOWLY DROP THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, BUT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS COOLING
MAY BE COINCIDENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION ENDING. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2-4" AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOW-END POTENTIAL EXISTS (ROUGHLY 20-35%
CHANCE) FOR PEAK ELEVATIONS TO REACH 4-6" IF HIGHER-END
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MANIFEST. WIDESPREAD IMPACTFUL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM ARRIVES ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS MID-WEEK FEATURE APPEARS STRONGER THAN THE
INCOMING WAVE, WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND EXPECTED QPF.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE VALLEY FLOORS. FOLLOWING THE
WEDNESDAY SYSTEM, THE REGION REMAINS IN AN UNSETTLED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY
KEEP PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME VIRGA OR SPRINKLES ARRIVING THIS EVENING, WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
WE ARE GOING WITH VCSH FOR NOW AT ALL TAF SITES AND MVFR/HIGH
END IFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE. LATER FORECASTS WILL BE ABLE TO
PINPOINT WHEN SHOWERS WILL MORE LIKELY IMPACT A GIVEN TAF SITE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 10KTS OR LESS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DMH
AVIATION...KEYES
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