471
FXUS65 KPIH 012105
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
205 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND VERY HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES MID WEEK WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH EAST IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON PER
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. PRECIPITATION BECOMES A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SLIGHTLY HEAVIER DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN 7500-8500 FT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY, SLOWING DROPPING LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE PRECIPITATION SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN 4-6" ABOVE PASS LEVEL,
WITH MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS AT PASS LEVEL.
A TRANSITORY RIDGE IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE
REGION, BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS TO EAST
IDAHO FOR MID WEEK. MILD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ELEVATED ABOVE 6500 FT WEDNESDAY, BUT AS TEMPERATURES FALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WE COULD SEE RAIN MIX WITH SNOW
DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, NBM MAINTAINS
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST IDAHO. GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO
BE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FEATURES.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
AND HOW THE SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY SEASONABLE UNDER THIS
PATTERN, WHICH IS STILL WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW
MIX AT VALLEYS FOR EACH SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
SHOWERS/POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING,
WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, ONE OR MORE
AREAS OF WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAIN AND SNOW IS
EXPECTED...BASED ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. ONCE THIS AREA
OF PRECIPITATION MOVES IN, LOOK FOR A RAPID DROP TO IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY (ESPECIALLY IF
SNOW DEVELOPS IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE CLOSER 32-35 DEGREES). THERE
IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF GOING LIFR AT THIS POINT BASED ON TRENDS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DMH
AVIATION...KEYES
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