234
FXUS65 KPIH 020552
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1052 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND VERY HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES MID WEEK WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH EAST IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON PER
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. PRECIPITATION BECOMES A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SLIGHTLY HEAVIER DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN 7500-8500 FT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY, SLOWING DROPPING LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE PRECIPITATION SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN 4-6" ABOVE PASS LEVEL,
WITH MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS AT PASS LEVEL.
A TRANSITORY RIDGE IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE
REGION, BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS TO EAST
IDAHO FOR MID WEEK. MILD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ELEVATED ABOVE 6500 FT WEDNESDAY, BUT AS TEMPERATURES FALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WE COULD SEE RAIN MIX WITH SNOW
DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, NBM MAINTAINS
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST IDAHO. GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO
BE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FEATURES.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
AND HOW THE SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY SEASONABLE UNDER THIS
PATTERN, WHICH IS STILL WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW
MIX AT VALLEYS FOR EACH SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SHOWERS STARTING TO HIT BYI. AMPLE MOISTURE
MOVING IN HAS BROUGHT MVFR/IFR VIS FROM FOG AND MIST TO PIH AND
IDA AND LIFR VIS TO DIJ AHEAD OF THESE SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW
LIGHT MOISTURE MOVING IN TO ALL SITES BY 12 Z FOR ALL SITES,
EXCEPT KSUN, BRINGING MVFR/IFR CIGS. FOR SUN MODELS SHOW A 50
TO 60% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS. MODELS EARLIER WHERE SHOWING SHOWERS
ALL MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS. HAVE BROUGHT VFR CIGS
AND VIS FOR KBYI BY AROUND 18Z AND 22Z FOR PIH AND EARLY
EVENING FOR IDA. MODELS SHOW SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT FOR DIJ BY MID
AFTERNOON TOMORROW. HOWEVER, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR DIJ ALL DAY TOMORROW CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DMH
AVIATION...TW
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