242
FXUS65 KPIH 040424
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
924 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY: WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOMORROW, POTENTIALLY REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS NEAR IDAHOME AND YALE
- MID-WEEK TEMPERATURE SPIKE: EXPECT A VERY MILD WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
- THURSDAY MORNING RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION: PRECIPITATION
BEGINS AS RAIN FOR MOST VALLEYS LATE WEDNESDAY, BUT A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN
- POTENTIALLY WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THIS
WEEKEND, LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD 60S AND WELL ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS VALLEY CLOUD COVER
GRADUALLY ERODING AS EASTERN IDAHO SITS IN A BRIEF BREAK
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. THIS PERIOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC
DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DIG INTO THE REGION. AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES TOMORROW, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WHILE NORMALLY
WINDY LOCATIONS SUCH AS IDAHOME AND YALE ARE LIKELY TO REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW WIDESPREAD THESE PEAK GUSTS WILL BE. CONSEQUENTLY,
WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR THIS SHIFT, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO USHER
IN MUCH MILDER AIR, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOWER VALLEYS AND POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOW 60S ACROSS
THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY. AT THE ONSET, SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH—AROUND
6,500 FEET—MEANING INITIAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A FEW INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. A SHARP TRANSITION OCCURS THURSDAY MORNING AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES, WHICH MAY ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
IN THE VALLEYS. WHILE WET ROADS AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
LIMIT SIGNIFICANT VALLEY ACCUMULATIONS, THE LATEST HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AND
WARRANT CLOSE MONITORING IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER EASTERN IDAHO FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHIFT
WILL BRING A RETURN TO QUIETER WEATHER AND A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND. IN FACT, CURRENT NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) GUIDANCE
APPEARS CONSERVATIVE; WIDESPREAD 60S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO NEXT TUESDAY AND BEYOND,
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WEATHER MODELS SHOW A LARGE
SPREAD IN POTENTIAL OUTCOMES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 923 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
EXPECT MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. ODDS OF ANY LOW FOG/STRATUS
OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS ARE LESS THAN 10% TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT TONIGHT BUT PICK UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...13
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