152
FXUS65 KPIH 040955
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
255 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MID-WEEK TEMPERATURE SPIKE: EXPECT A VERY MILD DAY TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
TONIGHT
- WINDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY: WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEGINNING THIS EVENING
AND WILL PEAK THURSDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF
BURLEY
- THURSDAY MORNING RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION: PRECIPITATION
BEGINS AS RAIN FOR MOST VALLEYS TONIGHT, BUT A TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
- POTENTIALLY WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THIS
WEEKEND, LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD 60S AND WELL ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
THE FIRST PART OF TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE MILD FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION BEFORE A COOLER, WETTER, AND BREEZIER PATTERN TAKES HOLD.
PORTIONS OF THE REGION, INCLUDING THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY, COULD SEE ANOTHER SEVERAL DEGREE WARM UP TODAY,
HOWEVER, THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUD COVER, WHICH MAY INHIBIT
DAYTIME WARMING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING BUT WON'T PEAK UNTIL THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY AND SOUTH HILLS/ALBION MOUNTAINS, WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
REACH UP TO 35 MPH AND WINDS WILL GUST IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH IN AREAS.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPAN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. STRONG CROSSWINDS
ACROSS SH-27 AND SH-77 COULD MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES, ALONG WITH BLOWING AND/OR DRIFTING SNOW ALONG
ANY ROADWAYS WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATES AND WINDS ARE ELEVATED.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL REACH
CENTRAL IDAHO BY THIS AFTERNOON AND FURTHER EAST DURING THE EVENING
AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6,500 FEET AT THE
ONSET BUT WILL RAPIDLY DROP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. MANY ARE LIKELY TO OBSERVE A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY, MEANING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY MEAN LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS OUR
VALLEYS BY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN OUR
VALLEYS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION, SEVERAL TENTHS TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY EVENING, THE BULK OF MOISTURE
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WITH MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS/ISLAND PARK REGION, BIG HOLE MOUNTAINS, AND
BEAR RIVER RANGE, WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL ROUGHLY RANGE 5 TO
10 INCHES AND WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH. MOUNTAIN
PASSES IN THESE REGIONS WILL LIKELY SEE 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EMIGRATION PASS, WHERE 9 INCHES ARE FORECAST.
ELSEWHERE, SEVERAL INCHES ARE FORECAST ABOVE 6,000 FEET ELEVATION
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS ABOVE PASS LEVEL.
THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD
AGAIN. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S FOR
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND VALLEYS FURTHER SOUTH. THIS ABOVE-NORMAL
REGIME LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 923 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
EXPECT MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. ODDS OF ANY LOW FOG/STRATUS
OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS ARE LESS THAN 10% TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT TONIGHT BUT PICK UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
IDZ055-056.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM MST
FRIDAY FOR IDZ060.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR IDZ064.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR IDZ066.
DISCUSSION...CROPP
AVIATION...13
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