091
FXUS65 KPIH 112249
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
449 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. A
COMBINATION OF HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY.
- HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PASSES EAST OF
I-15.
- SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BEGINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECORD
DAYTIME HIGHS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
VERY STRONG WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF VERY STRONG HIGH-IMPACT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED, SPECIFICALLY THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXISTS FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 55 MPH ACROSS THE ARCO DESERT, UPPER
SNAKE PLAIN, AND ALBION/SOUTH HILLS. PORTIONS OF THE TETON
VALLEY ZONE, ESPECIALLY THE SH-33 CORRIDOR BETWEEN REXBURG AND
TETONIA ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE THESE STRONGER WINDS. WILL
UPGRADE THESE ZONES FROM THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING, GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD 60-80% PROBABILITY OF GUSTS OVER
55 MPH. WILL UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WIND ADVISORY FOR
ALL OTHER HEADLINE ZONES WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OVER 55 MPH, THOUGH LOCALIZED AREAS REACHING THESE VALUES
IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION. FRIDAY REMAINS WINDY, THOUGH NOT AS
INTENSE. ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR FRIDAY. A
SECOND STRONG SURGE OF 55 MPH GUSTS OR GREATER IS FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY, WHICH COULD BE THE STRONGEST WIND DAY OF THE WEEK.
ADDITIONAL HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE LIKELY BASED ON TODAY'S
FORECAST VALUES.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION, A PERSISTENT MOISTURE PLUME WILL
IMPACT MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION ZONES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY. PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGH ELEVATIONS
EAST OF I-15 WILL SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND MOST OF THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THIS PATTERN, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS START OUT TONIGHT 5500-6000
FT, AND RISE TO 6500-7500 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE PASS LEVEL. TOTAL LIQUID
PRECIPITATION OF 0.50-1.25" ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAWTOOTHS
AND FRANK CHURCH REGION, YIELDING AN ESTIMATE OF 8-12" OF SNOW
AT GALENA PASS. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT, WILL HOLD
OFF ON WINTER RELATED HEADLINES FOR NOW. FURTHER EAST, THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE INTERSTATE COULD SEE 0.25-0.75" OF
LIQUID INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT AGAIN, SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AND
MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED EVEN AT PASS LEVEL.
BY SUNDAY, A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN STATES, LEADING TO A DRY,
LESS WINDY, AND INCREASINGLY WARM PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY STARTING MONDAY. CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
A 30% CHANCE OF REACHING 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY BY MONDAY, AND A 40-70% CHANCE OF REACHING 80 DEGREES FOR
THE SNAKE PLAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF BLACKFOOT BY WEDNESDAY,
NEARING OR EXCEEDING RECORDS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 449 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
WIND REMAINS THE BIGGEST ISSUE FOR OUR TAF SITES FOR THIS EVENING,
BUT ESPECIALLY TOMORROW. GUSTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20-30KTS THROUGH
THE EVENING AND TONIGHT AT ALL SITES, THOUGH WINDS WILL BE A BIT
LIGHTER AT SUN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, SO HAVE ADDED PROB30 IN FOR -SN AT DIJ AND
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VIS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR OCCURRENCE BETWEEN 03 TO 09Z TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH
THAT SNOW WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT DOWN INTO SUN, SO HAVE CONTINUED
WITH VCSH AT THIS TIME. WIND WILL REALLY KICK IN FOR THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS AT SUN AND DIJ WITH STRONGER GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
KTS AT BYI, PIH, AND IDA.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR IDZ051-054-
055-057-058-062.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR IDZ052-
053-056-065.
DISCUSSION...DMH
AVIATION...AMM
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