686
FXUS65 KPIH 121657
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1057 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. A
COMBINATION OF HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY.
- HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PASSES EAST OF
I-15.
- SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BEGINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECORD
DAYTIME HIGHS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP AREA WIDE FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE "LEAST WIND" AREAS TODAY WILL STILL GUSTS 25-35
MPH. A GOOD CHUNK OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO WILL BE IN THE
40-60 MPH RANGE FOR GUSTS. WE MAY SEE LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 70 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND ADJACENT BENCH AREAS, AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTH HILLS AND ALBION
MOUNTAINS. ACROSS HIGHER RIDGELINES, SUCH AS THE LOST RIVER
RANGE, PIONEERS, AND BOULDERS...LOOK FOR GUSTS APPROACHING 65-75
MPH FOR A SHORT TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY LOW
CHANCE THAT THOSE RIDGETOPS COULD EVEN GUST HIGHER THAN THAT
ACCORDING THE BLEND OF MODELS. THOSE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY, BUT STILL REMAIN PRETTY WINDY IN SOME AREAS. GUSTS
TOMORROW IN MANY AREAS WILL BE IN THE 35-55 MPH. WE WILL SEE ONE
LAST PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS ON SATURDAY, WHICH CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARD BEING STRONGER THAN TODAY. WE ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING AT
GUSTS OF 45-65 MPH ACROSS MANY AREAS. WE HAVE A 20-40% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 65 MPH ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN, MAGIC VALLEY, AND
ADJACENT BENCH AREAS. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 75
MPH IN THOSE AREAS. THERE IS A 30-60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 75 MPH
AS WELL FOR HIGHER RIDGELINES IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EXCEPT
THE SAWTOOTHS, HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST
HIGHLANDS, AND BEAR RIVER RANGE. WE KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY AND
HIGH WIND WARNING INTACT FROM YESTERDAY, ALTHOUGH WE ADDED THE
LOST RIVER, CHALLIS, AND PAHSIMEROI VALLEYS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN MAY NEED ADDED TO THE HIGH
WIND WARNING IF TRENDS CONTINUE UPWARD. WE WILL NEED A WIND
ADVISORY TOMORROW FOR SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS, AND LIKELY A
COMBINATION OF WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNING HEADLINES
SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY STREAM ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS FOR ALL
ZONES AND ALL ELEVATIONS, BUT THE FOCUS WOULD REMAIN IN SIMILAR
AREAS OVERALL. THREE DAY TOTALS FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS WILL BE 0.30-0.80", WITH THE HIGH END OF THAT
RANGE FAIRLY ISOLATED AND MORE LIKELY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
BORDERS WITH WYOMING AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS, THIS STRONG FLOW WILL REALLY LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO
THE SAWTOOTHS, FRANK CHURCH, NORTHERN END OF THE SMOKYS,
BOULDERS, WHITE CLOUDS. THREE DAY TOTALS ARE 0.50-1.50" ABOVE
8000FT, WITH LOCALIZED AT OR ABOVE 2". WE TRIMMED QUITE A BIT OF
PRECIPITATION (0.50-1.0" WORTH) IN THOSE AREAS BACK, AS IT
APPEARS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE PRODUCING UNREALISTIC
6-12 HOUR TOTALS. THAT SAID, THERE IS STILL A 10-40% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 2" ON THE SPINE OF THE SAWTOOTHS. THAT PRODUCES A
POTENTIAL FOR 10-30" ABOVE 8500FT FROM AROUND GALENA SUMMIT
NORTHWARD, WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW SOUTH TOWARD THE WOOD RIVER
VALLEY.
BY SUNDAY, A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN STATES, LEADING TO A DRY,
LESS WINDY, AND INCREASINGLY WARM PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY STARTING MONDAY. CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
A 30% CHANCE OF REACHING 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY BY MONDAY, AND A 40-70% CHANCE OF REACHING 80 DEGREES FOR
THE SNAKE PLAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF BLACKFOOT BY WEDNESDAY,
NEARING OR EXCEEDING RECORDS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH IS DRY ENOUGH WHERE ONLY KDIJ NEEDS TO
WORRY ABOUT SHRA AND MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH VSBY AND
CIG DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MORNING HOURS. THE BIGGER
CONCERN AND MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE WIND. NBM GUIDANCE FOR
KPIH AND KIDA INDICATES WIND IN EXCESS OF 25KT WITH GUSTS AS
STRONG AS 45KT UNTIL 13/03Z OR SO, WHEN IT DECREASES TO 20G30KT,
WITH SIMILAR BUT LIGHTER WIND FOR KSUN, KDIJ, AND KBYI. HOWEVER,
REALITY HAS SOME OF THE STRONGEST WIND RIGHT NOW AT KDIJ. WHILE
KBYI AND KSUN WIND IS NOT YET GUSTY AND IS ACTUALLY LIGHT
COMPARATIVELY.
HRRR GUIDANCE FOR WIND SHOWS A MORE REALISTIC EBB AND FLOW
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH CURRENTLY IS NOT MATCHING THE WINDSPEED. SO
USE HIGHER WINDSPEED AND TRIED TO USE THE TIMING OF THE LATEST
HRRR. SO THE WIND SUBSIDES MUCH MORE THAN NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS,
BUT BY 13/11Z WIND HAS BECOME GUSTY EXCEPT FOR KBYI AND KSUN.
ALL IN ALL, HOWEVER, WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE BEST
DETERMINISTIC MODEL, THE DAMPENED SIMPLICITY OF A BLENDED MODEL,
AND REALITY, THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.
FORTUNATELY, THE TRADITIONAL WIND DIRECTIONS MEANS THAT NO CROSS
WIND PROBLEM SHOULD ARISE FROM THESE VERY STRONG SPEEDS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ051-055-057-
058-062-067-068-070.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ052>054-
056-065.
DISCUSSION...DMH/KEYES
AVIATION...MESSICK
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