632
FXUS65 KPIH 121933
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
133 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PATCHY BLOWING DUST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH A SECOND SURGE OF STRONG WINDS FOR
SATURDAY.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY,
PRIMARILY ABOVE 6000 FT, LEADING TO OCCASIONAL WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ON A FEW AREA PASSES.
- A MAJOR WARMING TREND ARRIVES NEXT WEEK. VALLEY TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REACH THE 70S BY MID WEEK, AND SOME AREAS COULD
SEE 80 DEGREE HIGHS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
A SIGNIFICANT, PROLONGED WIND EVENT REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN
ACROSS EAST IDAHO TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS STRONG WEST-TO-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND
ADVISORY ARE WELL PLACED WITH GUSTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 60
MPH IN PLACES. A FEW ITD CAMERAS SHOW INTERMITTENT BLOWING
DUST, BUT THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE
KEPT THE IMPACT LOCALIZED FOR NOW, MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF
IDAHO FALLS. PATCHY BLOWING DUST HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDS
THROUGH THE EVENING AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS EVENING, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY AND JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE
SNAKE PLAIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
EXPECT ANOTHER RAMP-UP IN WINDS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, THOUGH
NOT QUITE TO TODAY'S INTENSITY. ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED ONCE CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. LOOKING AHEAD
TO SATURDAY, A SECOND STRONG SURGE IN WINDS IS FORECAST TO
PRODUCE WINDS THAT MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED TODAY'S VALUES.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A 60-85% CHANCE OF MAXIMUM GUSTS
EXCEEDING 55 MPH FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ON
SATURDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 70 MPH BASED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. HAVE ADDED ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY
BLOWING DUST TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE SIMILARITY
TO TODAY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES AND/OR HIGH WIND
WARNINGS.
THE PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS
OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE NBM LIQUID PRECIPITATION
TOTALS RANGE FROM 0.50-1.25" ACROSS THE REGION, MOST OF THIS
SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RANGES NORTH OF
THE WOOD RIVER REGION. CONTINUED THE TREND OF PARING BACK THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WHERE THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING THE OROGRAPHIC ASSENT
AND UNREALISTIC TOTALS. FURTHER EAST, THE LIQUID TOTALS FOR THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS SHOULD STILL RANGE 0.30-0.80", HIGHEST ACROSS
THE BIG HOLE RANGE AND NORTH ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER TO THE
CENTENNIALS. SNOW TOTALS FOR BACKCOUNTRY PEAKS RANGE AS HIGH AS
6-9" BUT MOST MAJOR ROADWAYS INCLUDING PASSES SHOULD BE MUCH
LESS WITH MINIMAL TRAVEL IMPACTS. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON
ANY WINTER RELATED HEADLINES FOR NOW.
BY SUNDAY, A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST, LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A SHARP WARMING TREND STARTING MONDAY. THERE IS A
55% CHANCE OF REACHING 70 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE SNAKE
PLAIN BY TUESDAY, AND AT LEAST A 45% CHANCE OF REACHING 80
DEGREES SOUTH AND WEST OF BLACKFOOT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE CHALLENGED STARTING TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH IS DRY ENOUGH WHERE ONLY KDIJ NEEDS TO
WORRY ABOUT SHRA AND MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH VSBY AND
CIG DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MORNING HOURS. THE BIGGER
CONCERN AND MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE WIND. NBM GUIDANCE FOR
KPIH AND KIDA INDICATES WIND IN EXCESS OF 25KT WITH GUSTS AS
STRONG AS 45KT UNTIL 13/03Z OR SO, WHEN IT DECREASES TO 20G30KT,
WITH SIMILAR BUT LIGHTER WIND FOR KSUN, KDIJ, AND KBYI. HOWEVER,
REALITY HAS SOME OF THE STRONGEST WIND RIGHT NOW AT KDIJ. WHILE
KBYI AND KSUN WIND IS NOT YET GUSTY AND IS ACTUALLY LIGHT
COMPARATIVELY.
HRRR GUIDANCE FOR WIND SHOWS A MORE REALISTIC EBB AND FLOW
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH CURRENTLY IS NOT MATCHING THE WINDSPEED. SO
USE HIGHER WINDSPEED AND TRIED TO USE THE TIMING OF THE LATEST
HRRR. SO THE WIND SUBSIDES MUCH MORE THAN NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS,
BUT BY 13/11Z WIND HAS BECOME GUSTY EXCEPT FOR KBYI AND KSUN.
ALL IN ALL, HOWEVER, WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE BEST
DETERMINISTIC MODEL, THE DAMPENED SIMPLICITY OF A BLENDED MODEL,
AND REALITY, THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.
FORTUNATELY, THE TRADITIONAL WIND DIRECTIONS MEANS THAT NO CROSS
WIND PROBLEM SHOULD ARISE FROM THESE VERY STRONG SPEEDS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ051-055-057-
058-062-067-068-070.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ052>054-
056-065.
DISCUSSION...DMH
AVIATION...MESSICK
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