258
FXUS65 KPIH 130631
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1231 AM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
- PERIODS OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY,
PRIMARILY ABOVE 6000 FT, LEADING TO OCCASIONAL WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ON A FEW AREA PASSES.
- A MAJOR WARMING TREND ARRIVES NEXT WEEK. VALLEY TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REACH THE 70S BY MID WEEK, AND SOME AREAS COULD
SEE 80 DEGREE HIGHS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 AM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
THE WIND MACHINE REMAINS ACTIVATED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY, WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH COMMON ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHER GUSTS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 35-50 MPH RANGE,
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MOST OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC
VALLEY. WE HAVE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE
WIND TONIGHT, BUT STILL EXPECT IT TO BE BREEZY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY RAMP UP IN THE MORNING, WITH THEM PEAKING IN THE
AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE WINDS IN SOME AREAS A BIT SUBDUED IN THE
MORNING DESPITE STRONG WINDS OFF THE SURFACE INCREASING, AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING. THIS DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
HOLDING THINGS UP A BIT. IF WE CAN GET CLEARING EARLIER IN THE
DAY, EXPECT HIGH WINDS SOONER. WE WILL DEFINITELY NEED ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR SATURDAY. WE
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY TO SEE HOW WE WANT TO ARRANGE
THOSE HEADLINES. AS THE LOW RACES SOUTHEAST, WINDS WILL QUICKLY
TURN NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN PRETTY STRONG UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE ARE STILL WATCHING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FALLING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. MOST OF
THIS IS FALLING ACROSS THE SAWTOOTHS AND SURROUNDING RANGES,
MOUNTAINS AROUND ISLAND PARK INTO YELLOWSTONE AND TETONS. WE
WILL SEE AN UPTICK TOMORROW AS THE LOW RACES ACROSS OUR AREA,
BUT NOTHING TOO OUTLANDISH IN ANY GIVE 6 HOUR PERIOD. WE DID
DECREASE SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS, AS HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS WERE PRODUCING
UNREALISTIC AMOUNTS EVEN WITH A STRONG UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR
HIGHER RIDGELINES. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH TOMORROW NIGHT AS WE
WILL SEE A CONVERGENCE BAND RACE SOUTH, ALONG AND EAST OF I-15.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.20-0.50" ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER INTO THE TETONS. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FALLS FROM GALENA SUMMIT NORTH
AND WEST, WHERE 0.40-1.0" IS FORECAST. THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE
OF OVER 1.0" TO FALL ACROSS HIGHEST PEAKS AND RIDGELINES.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT, ALTHOUGH ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE SAWTOOTHS AND SALMON RIVER MOUNTAINS ANOTHER 12+" IS
POSSIBLE.
BY SUNDAY, A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST, LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A SHARP WARMING TREND STARTING MONDAY. THERE IS A
55% CHANCE OF REACHING 70 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE SNAKE
PLAIN BY TUESDAY, AND AT LEAST A 45% CHANCE OF REACHING 80
DEGREES SOUTH AND WEST OF BLACKFOOT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE CHALLENGED STARTING TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1001 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
MAIN IMPACTS CONTINUE TO BE WIND. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 30KTS AT
IDA AND PIH THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUN WILL PROBABLY TURN A
DOWNVALLEY WIND ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS OF HOW LONG
THEY MAY HOLD THAT WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING VARIABLE OR
A LIGHT UPVALLEY WIND DEVELOPING AROUND 12Z. EXPECT STRONG
GUSTY CROSSWINDS ONCE AGAIN AT SUN AROUND MIDDAY. WITH GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED AT OTHER TAF SITES AS WELL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH DIJ BUT MOST LIKELY AVOID
THEM. LOOKS LIKE A 30% CHANCE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD
OF SHOWERS AT DIJ. IF IT WERE TO OCCUR, MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR IDZ052>054-065.
DISCUSSION...DMH/KEYES
AVIATION...13
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