024
FXUS65 KPIH 131950
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
150 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST ARE EXPECTED
FOR EAST IDAHO SATURDAY.
- A COMBINATION OF WIND ADVISORY, HIGH WIND WARNING, AND BLOWING
DUST WARNING HEADLINES ARE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY.
- A MAJOR WARMING TREND FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM, WITH POTENTIAL
RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WINDY PATTERN CONTINUES WITH WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE TODAY FOR
MOST OF THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN. GUSTS ALREADY
EXCEEDING 40 MPH, WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS OF BLOWING DUST
REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. PROBABILISTIC MAX GUSTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE FOR THE REST OF TODAY IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. WINDS DROP OFF THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT LEADING INTO SATURDAY. FOR SATURDAY, THE
WINDS DRASTICALLY RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN. THIS TIME, EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR WINDS TO EXCEED THURSDAY'S EVENT ACROSS A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA. NEARLY ALL OF EAST IDAHO WILL BE HEADLINED FOR
WIND SATURDAY, WITH ALMOST ALL AREAS SUPPORTING A GREATER THAN
30% CHANCE OF MAX WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH. THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN AND AREAS SURROUNDING IT SUPPORT A BETTER THAN 60% CHANCE
OF MAX WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH. FOR THESE AREAS, A HIGH WIND
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS,
ISLAND PARK, AND THE CACHE VALLEY/BEAR LAKE ZONES SHOULD SEE THE
LESSER GUSTS, THUS A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE BLOWING DUST ISSUES SEEN ON THURSDAY, WE
HAVE ADDED A BLOWING DUST WARNING FOR THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN, TO ACCOUNT FOR ANTICIPATED TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS NEAR AND
NORTH OF IDAHO FALLS. PEAK WINDS SHOULD FALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT SHOULDER TIMES WOULD INCLUDE MID-MORNING
AND EARLY-EVENING FOR GUSTS TO START TO BE IMPACTFUL.
THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH PRODUCING THESE WINDS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER PUTTING A DAMPER ON THE WINDS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN,
IF THEY CAN DEVELOP, SO NOT ENOUGH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOISTEN THE GROUND TO PREVENT BLOWING DUST FROM BEING AN ISSUE.
HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHLANDS
EAST OF INTERSTATE 15 AND WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.
WINDS EASE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS, BRINGING AN END TO THE WIND
MACHINE FOR EAST IDAHO FOR THE TIME BEING. THIS USHERS IN THE
BEGINNING OF AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND DRY PERIOD FOR EAST IDAHO.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK, TRENDING TOWARD RECORD
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WIND, WIND, AND MORE WIND. SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, BUT THE WIND
REMAINS THE BIGGEST IMPACT TO AVIATION ONCE AGAIN TODAY AND EVEN
MORE SO TOMORROW. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS AT DIJ
AND IDA AND EXPECT PIH, BYI, AND SUN TO JOIN IN WITH THOSE GUSTS
SOONER RATHER THAN LATER AS WE APPROACH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS THE COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH ON SATURDAY, WE ARE EXPECTING SOME
PRECIPITATION AT MOST OF OUR SITES. TEMPERATURES LOOK WARM ENOUGH TO
BE ALL RAIN ON SATURDAY, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME -RASN AT DIJ AND
SUN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOVE 32 DEGREES. LOWER CLOUDS
WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION, BUT THE NBM ONLY
SHOWS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SO WILL GO WITH SCT
CLOUDS AT/NEAR MVFR. THE NBM ALSO SHOWS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MVFR VIS AT DIJ, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON REALLY TANKING THEM FOR NOW,
BUT WE DO SEEM A BIT MORE LIKELY TO HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS THERE. THE
OTHER BIT OF A WILD CARD WILL BE BLOWING DUST ON SATURDAY. THERE IS
A 60 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 48 KTS AT BYI, PIH,
AND IDA ON SATURDAY SO WE EXPECT TO SEE SOME BLOWING DUST AROUND IDA
AND PIH ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH IMPACTS OF BLDU WERE MINIMAL ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 48 KTS AT
DIJ AND SUN ON SATURDAY.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
IDZ051>058-062>065-068.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ052>054-065.
BLOWING DUST WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR IDZ053.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR IDZ059>061-
066-067-069>075.
DISCUSSION...DMH
AVIATION...AMM
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