271
FXUS65 KPIH 160449
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1049 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS SATURDAY
- LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY
- A MAJOR WARMING TREND FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM, WITH POTENTIAL
RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS IDAHO WITH UPPER
HIGH CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION OTHERWISE PATTERN IS MUCH QUIETER
TODAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, ALBEIT MUCH COOLER. SOME GUSTY
WINDS ARE STILL IN PLACE, BUT MAX GUSTS TODAY LOOK TO TOP OUT AT
25-35 MPH, WHICH IS BELOW WHAT SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACHED ON
SATURDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES DRIVING OVER THE TOP OF THE BUILDING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE ISLAND PARK HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LIQUID QPF
AMOUNTS REMAIN EXTREMELY LIGHT, AND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE WEEK, UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES, LEADING TO A PERIOD OF VERY
STRONG WARMING FOR EAST IDAHO. BY WEDNESDAY, ALMOST ALL LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE INTO THE 70S BASED ON THE DETERMINISTIC NBM.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE DETERMINISTIC VALUES ARE
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE ENSEMBLE SPREADS.
PROBABILISTIC DATA SUPPORTS INCREASING CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS ESPECIALLY SOUTH TO
REACH OR EXCEED 80 BY MID WEEK. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE THREATENED BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE AREA IS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNDER OVERALL HIGH
PRESSURE. A WEAK WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRINGING VERY LITTLE IMPACTS TO OUR TAF SITES. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION AT DIJ AFTER AROUND 12Z. ONE MODEL SHOWS AROUND
9Z. HAVE VICINITY SHOWERS FOR DIJ AS SOME MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SKIRTS EXTREME EASTERN IDAHO. STILL EXPECTING LESS
THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AT DIJ. ANY SHOWERS
ON STATION AT DIJ COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. HAVE NO
PRECIPITATION AT THE OTHER 4 SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. WINDS HAVE BACKED OFF TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR MOST SITES THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
CALM AT SUN. WINDS WILL HAVE GUSTS OF AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR PIH
AND BYI BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR IDA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO
GRADUALLY DROP OFF TOMORROW EVENING AND CLOUDS TO START
CLEARING.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DMH
AVIATION...TW
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