160
FXUS65 KPIH 311733
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1133 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WET AND COOLER (BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL) CONDITIONS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
- MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUCH WETTER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW FOR HIGH ELEVATIONS. LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR
VALLEYS.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK, EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH
WETTER CONDITIONS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PICKS UP TODAY AS A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL ACROSS THE SAWTOOTHS AND SURROUNDING RANGES, AS WELL
AS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER WITH THIS
ROUND TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR LIGHT SNOW ABOVE
7500-8000FT. ANY REAL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS, AND THE SOUTH HILLS/ALBION
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, A COUPLE OF STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT DAY-TIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE BIGGER PUSH OF COLDER AIR AND MODERATE TO HEAVY VALLEY RAIN
AND MOSTLY MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH AND HAS ENOUGH
COLD AIR WITH IT TO MAYBE PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS LOWEST
ELEVATIONS DURING THE COLDEST HOURS (LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING) DURING THAT STRETCH. THAT SAID, ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS BELOW 7000FT WON'T BE STICKING AROUND LONG AT ALL. EXPECT
SOME CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE
MAIN STORM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION TOTALS
FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD, LOWEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE 0.10-0.50"
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHER VALLEYS ARE LOOKING AT 0.60-1.0",
AND THE MOUNTAINS AT 1.0-2.0". THE PROBABILITY FOR OVER 2.0" OF
TOTAL MOISTURE THIS WEEK IS LOW, BUT ALSO NOT ZERO FOR THE
SAWTOOTHS, BEAR RIVER RANGE, AND HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
ISLAND PARK. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL BELOW 7000FT,
BUT SOME DECENT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ABOVE
8500FT. AGAIN, THE CAVEATS HERE AT THAT THIS WILL BE OVER A
MULTI-DAY PERIOD AND WE ARE LOOKING SHOWERS/STORMS VERSUS MORE
WIDESPREAD AND STEADY PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. DAY-TIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S, EVEN FOR THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS.
MODELS SHOW A DRYING AND WARMING TREND STARTING LATE FRIDAY,
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK
FOR DAY-TIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S/60S TO RETURN BY NEXT
SATURDAY AND DAY-TIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S/LOW 70S BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING CLOUD
COVER, BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND RAIN CHANCES TO ALL SITES TODAY. WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 KTS AT MOST SITES,
THOUGH GUSTS AT DIJ LOOK TO BE A BIT LIGHTER. THERE'S EVEN ABOUT A
15 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE WE COULD HEAR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY
AND TOMORROW. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW THE BEGINNINGS OF THIS
MOISTURE JUST NOW WORKING INTO EASTERN IDAHO, SO IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE WE ACTUALLY GET ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AT SUN, BYI, OR DIJ. SHOWERS WILL BE ON AND OFF
OVERNIGHT, BUT THAT LOOKS TO BE THE BEST TIMING FOR RAIN AT ANY AND
ALL SITES. MODELS ARE SHOWING LOWER CIGS WITH PRECIPITATION TONIGHT,
SO HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL SITES OVERNIGHT.
RIGHT NOW, PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN AT DIJ, BUT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TONIGHT IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO MIXING WITH
SOME SNOW. IF IT BRIEFLY SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW, CONDITIONS WOULD
DROP BELOW MVFR QUICKLY. WE EXPECT A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TW
AVIATION...AMM
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