342
FXUS65 KPIH 311924
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
124 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SPRING TRANSITION: ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY VANISH
LATE THIS WEEK AS A COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS A RETURN OF
RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND MUCH COOLER AIR.
- THURSDAY SNOW: SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS BY
THURSDAY AM. WHILE SIGNIFICANT VALLEY ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY
DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES, THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE
6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS AND PASSES.
- BREEZY & RAW: THURSDAY WILL FEEL PARTICULARLY "RAW" WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY.
- EASTER WEEKEND OUTLOOK: A RAPID WARMING TREND BEGINS
SATURDAY, LEADING TO A DRY, SUNNY, AND VERY WARM EASTER
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 70S BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
EASTERN IDAHO IS CURRENTLY ENTERING A CLASSIC SPRINGTIME ROLLER
COASTER RIDE. AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS WIDESPREAD
MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TRANSPORTS PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IS THE
PRECURSOR TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. RADAR IS
ALREADY DETECTING LIGHT, SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA, AND WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE
ENVIRONMENT ISN'T OVERLY UNSTABLE, HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A LOW, BUT NON-ZERO, CHANCE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS WE MOVE INTO
WEDNESDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM A STEADY,
STRATIFORM NATURE OVERNIGHT BACK INTO MORE CELLULAR, HIT-OR-MISS
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES (POPS)
REMAIN HIGH, THE TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT (QPF) IS EXPECTED TO
STAY LOW DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE MOST
IMPACTFUL WINDOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE HEART OF THE COLD CORE
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THIS SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL DRIVE SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC
VALLEY. WHILE WE EXPECT TO SEE APRIL FLAKES FLYING IN THE
VALLEYS, SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS GIVEN THE RECENT STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER AND HIGH
GROUND TEMPERATURES.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
SPECIFICALLY ABOVE 6,500 FEET. CURRENT FORECAST TOTALS RANGE
FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE STANLEY BASIN, KETCHUM, AND ISLAND
PARK AREAS, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS BETWEEN 6,000 AND 7,000 FEET. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL
TOTALS WILL OCCUR ABOVE 8,000 FEET ON MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND
PASSES—SUCH AS GALENA AND EMIGRATION—WHERE 6 TO 10 INCHES IS
LIKELY, WITH UP TO A FOOT POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. WHILE
THESE TOTALS CURRENTLY FALL BELOW WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA, A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES. THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY BE A "RAW" DAY BY ALL ACCOUNTS, WITH BREEZY WINDS
NEARING ADVISORY LEVELS AND HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB OUT OF THE
30S AND 40S.
THE SILVER LINING IN THIS FORECAST IS THE BREVITY OF THE COLD
SNAP. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO WYOMING BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY, ALLOWING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TO
COMMENCE IN ITS WAKE. WHILE FRIDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE WITH A FEW LINGERING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS, AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AGGRESSIVELY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SETUP
WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DRY-OUT AND A SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN
TEMPERATURES. VALLEY HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO THE 50S AND 60S BY
SATURDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD MID-TO-UPPER 60S FOR EASTER SUNDAY.
THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF APRIL, WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING CLOUD
COVER, BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND RAIN CHANCES TO ALL SITES TODAY.
WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 KTS AT MOST
SITES, THOUGH GUSTS AT DIJ LOOK TO BE A BIT LIGHTER. THERE'S
EVEN ABOUT A 15 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE WE COULD HEAR A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER TODAY AND TOMORROW. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW THE
BEGINNINGS OF THIS MOISTURE JUST NOW WORKING INTO EASTERN IDAHO,
SO IT WILL LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE WE
ACTUALLY GET ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT SUN, BYI, OR DIJ.
SHOWERS WILL BE ON AND OFF OVERNIGHT, BUT THAT LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST TIMING FOR RAIN AT ANY AND ALL SITES. MODELS ARE SHOWING
LOWER CIGS WITH PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, SO HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS
IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW,
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN AT DIJ, BUT AS TEMPERATURES
DROP TONIGHT IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO MIXING WITH SOME SNOW. IF
IT BRIEFLY SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW, CONDITIONS WOULD DROP BELOW
MVFR QUICKLY. WE EXPECT A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...AMM
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