180
FXUS65 KPIH 011116
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
516 AM MDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SPRING TRANSITION: ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY VANISH
LATE THIS WEEK AS A COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS A RETURN OF
RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND MUCH COOLER AIR.
- THURSDAY SNOW: SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS BY
THURSDAY AM. WHILE SIGNIFICANT VALLEY ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY
DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES, THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE
6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS AND PASSES.
- BREEZY & RAW: THURSDAY WILL FEEL PARTICULARLY "RAW" WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY.
- EASTER WEEKEND OUTLOOK: A RAPID WARMING TREND BEGINS
SATURDAY, LEADING TO A DRY, SUNNY, AND VERY WARM EASTER
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 70S BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT WED APR 1 2026
EASTERN IDAHO IS CURRENTLY ENTERING A CLASSIC SPRINGTIME ROLLER
COASTER RIDE. EXPECT WET AND COLDER CONDITIONS TODAY AND,
PARTICULARLY, THURSDAY. THEN, WE WILL TRANSITION BACK TO WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS WIDESPREAD MID-TO-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSPORTS PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COASTS OF WASHINGTON AND
OREGON.
RADAR IS DETECTING LIGHT, SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS CURRENTLY. WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WHILE THE
ENVIRONMENT ISN'T OVERLY UNSTABLE, HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A LOW, BUT NON-ZERO, CHANCE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES (POPS)
REMAIN HIGH, THE TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT (QPF) IS EXPECTED TO
STAY LOW TODAY DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.
THE BIGGER IMPACT IS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW, WHICH WILL START
IMPACTING OUR WESTERN BORDERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND SETTLE OVER
THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW SYSTEM. THIS SURGE OF COLD AIR
WILL DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS OF THE SNAKE
PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY. WHILE WE EXPECT TO SEE APRIL FLAKES
FLYING IN THE VALLEYS, SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS GIVEN THE RECENT STRETCH OF WARM
WEATHER AND HIGH GROUND TEMPERATURES.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, SPECIFICALLY ABOVE 6,500 FEET. CURRENT FORECAST TOTALS
RANGE FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE STANLEY BASIN, KETCHUM, AND
ISLAND PARK AREAS, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS BETWEEN 6,000 AND 7,000 FEET. THE MOST
SUBSTANTIAL TOTALS WILL OCCUR ABOVE 8,000 FEET ON MOUNTAIN PEAKS
AND PASSES—SUCH AS GALENA AND EMIGRATION—WHERE 7 TO 11 INCHES
ARE LIKELY, WITH UP TO A FOOT TO A FOOT AND HALF POSSIBLE ON THE
HIGHEST PEAKS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO ACCOUNT FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE A "RAW" DAY BY ALL
ACCOUNTS, WITH BREEZY WINDS NEARING WIND ADVISORY LEVELS (35 TO
45 MPH) AND DAY-TIME HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S
AND 40S.
THE SILVER LINING IN THIS FORECAST IS THE BREVITY OF THE COLD
SNAP. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO
WYOMING BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY, ALLOWING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND TO COMMENCE IN ITS WAKE. WHILE FRIDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH A FEW LINGERING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS, AN
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD AGGRESSIVELY OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DRY-OUT AND A
SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN TEMPERATURES. VALLEY HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO
THE 50S AND 60S BY SATURDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD MID-TO-UPPER 60S
FOR EASTER SUNDAY. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK
OF APRIL, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S UNDER AMPLE
SUNSHINE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT WED APR 1 2026
EXPECT VCSH FOR ALL SITES TODAY EXCEPT POSSIBLY PIH AND IDA AS
WE CONTINUE TO BE IN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE PATTERN
CHANGES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING ON OUR WESTERN BORDERS AND MOVING OVER OUR WHOLE AREA
THURSDAY. HAVE MVFR CIGS AT DIJ CURRENTLY AND THEY WILL MOVE
BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR WITH ANY SHOWERS ON STATION.
IDA CURRENTLY HAS LIFR CIGS. THESE CIGS SHOULD LIFT IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE WINDS PICKING UP THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING FOR ALL SITES BUT KSUN. SHOWERS WILL
PICK UP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAVE BROUGHT
ALL SITES BUT BYI DOWN TO IFR BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA. HAVE PROB30
THUNDERSTORMS AT DIJ AND SUN THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TW/MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...TW
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