315
FXUS65 KPIH 012023
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
223 PM MDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER: A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS, WHERE
IMPACTFUL SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.
- HIGH-ELEVATION SNOWFALL: ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE
PROBABLE FOR MOUNTAIN PASSES, WITH UP TO 1 TO 2 FEET POSSIBLE
ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS, PARTICULARLY IN THE SAWTOOTHS AND BEAR
RIVER RANGE.
- WINDY THURSDAY: A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SNAKE
PLAIN, MAGIC VALLEY, TETON VALLEY, AND SOUTH HILLS FOR GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH.
- HOLIDAY WEEKEND WARM-UP: FOLLOWING A COLD AND WET THURSDAY, A
HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE WILL USHER IN A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND,
WITH 70-DEGREE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED APR 1 2026
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS WELCOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S IN AREAS
SEEING SUSTAINED SUNSHINE. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT- LIVED,
HOWEVER, AS CLOUDS RETURN QUICKLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC
COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR A
PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 36 HOURS.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD TOMORROW, A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MID-MORNING HOURS.
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FRONT MAY COINCIDE WITH
THE MORNING COMMUTE ALONG THE INTERSTATE CORRIDORS, BRINGING A
RAPID TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. WHILE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SATURATE THE GROUND, THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS. SIGNIFICANT VALLEY
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND
WET ROADS, BUT A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID-30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. WHILE ELEVATIONS
AROUND 6,500 FEET—INCLUDING STANLEY, KETCHUM, AND ISLAND
PARK—CAN EXPECT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW, THE HEAVIEST TOTALS WILL
BE FOUND ABOVE 8,000 FEET. MOUNTAIN PASSES IN THE 6,500–8,500
FOOT RANGE ARE PROGGED TO RECEIVE 6 TO 10 INCHES, WHILE THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SAWTOOTHS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 FEET OF FRESH
ACCUMULATION DUE TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW. COMPOUNDING THE
WINTER WEATHER WILL BE WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH, WITH
GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
SOUTH HILLS, MAKING FOR A GENERALLY UNPLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE
REGION.
THANKFULLY, THIS SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT QUICKLY INTO WYOMING BY FRIDAY, ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF AND SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING. WHILE
FRIDAY REMAINS BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, IT WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE ROBUST WARMING TREND TAKES HOLD FOR
THE WEEKEND. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, ENSURING DRY
CONDITIONS AND A RAPID CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES. VALLEY HIGHS IN
THE 60S THIS WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO THE 70S BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, THE PATTERN MAY
BECOME UNSETTLED AGAIN BY MID-WEEK, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY
SUBSEQUENT DISTURBANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT WED APR 1 2026
CEILINGS THIS MORNING WERE MUCH LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED AT MOST
OF OUR SITES, BUT WE AT LEAST HAVE GOTTEN SOME MIDDAY
IMPROVEMENT IN OUR LITTLE "IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS" TIME. HOWEVER,
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE REST OF TODAY
AND BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT ITSELF COMES THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO.
THERE IS ABOUT A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER, SO ALL SITES EXCEPT IDA HAVE A PROB30 FOR SUCH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THOUGH THIS IS DEPENDENT ON BEING ABLE TO GET
A BIT MORE CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL SWITCH
FROM RAIN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AT SUN AND DIJ AND WE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW DOWN IN THE VALLEYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT BYI AND PIH.
THIS WILL BE AS PRECIPITATION IS STARTING TO TAPER OFF, SO IT'S
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME FOR SNOW AT THESE TWO PLACES AND IDA
WILL LIKELY BE DRY BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THERE IS
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT BYI, PIH,
AND IDA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS YOU WOULD SURMISE, MORE RAIN AND
SNOW MEANS PROLONGED TIMES OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES DUE TO LOW CIGS AND VIS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AND WE CAN'T FORGET THE WIND! GUSTS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO
25 KTS FOR MOST WITH STRONGER GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS THANKS TO
FROPA ON THURSDAY.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR IDZ051>057-
065.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON MDT
FRIDAY FOR IDZ060-063-064-066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR IDZ071>074.
DISCUSSION...MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...AMM
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