958
FXUS65 KPIH 020904
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
304 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER: A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS, WHERE
IMPACTFUL SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.
- HIGH-ELEVATION SNOWFALL: ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE
PROBABLE FOR MOUNTAIN PASSES, WITH UP TO 1 TO 2 FEET POSSIBLE
ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS, PARTICULARLY IN THE SAWTOOTHS AND BEAR
RIVER RANGE.
- WINDY THURSDAY: A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SNAKE
PLAIN, MAGIC VALLEY, TETON VALLEY, AND SOUTH HILLS FOR GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH.
- HOLIDAY WEEKEND WARM-UP: FOLLOWING A COLD AND WET THURSDAY, A
HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE WILL USHER IN A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND,
WITH 70-DEGREE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL APPROACHING OUR AREA AND IS CURRENTLY IN A LINE
JUST WEST OF STANLEY TO JUST EAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTERN THROUGH THE DAY EXITING OUR
AREA INTO WYOMING BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WITH THE MORNING COMMUTE ALONG THE INTERSTATE
CORRIDORS, BRINGING A RAPID TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. LOOK
FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH POCATELLO, BLACKFOOT, AND IDAHO
FALLS BETWEEN 7 AM TO 9AM. WHILE THIS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL
WILL SATURATE THE GROUND, THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS. SIGNIFICANT VALLEY
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND
WET ROADS. HOWEVER, A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. EASTERN BENCH AREAS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN COULD
RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WET SNOW. BEHIND THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE MID-30S TO LOWER 40S. MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK CONVERGENCE BAND
DROPPING DOWN THE SNAKE PLAIN AROUND 5 TO 9 PM THIS EVENING.
THIS BAND LOOKS TO REACH IDAHO FALLS AROUND 6 PM AND BLACKFOOT
AROUND 7 PM. SO FAR, MODELS SHOW THIS BAND MOVING EAST BEFORE
HITTING POCATELLO. SNOW OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
CONVERGENCE BAND THIS EVENING.
THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. WHILE ELEVATIONS
AROUND 6,500 FEET—INCLUDING STANLEY, KETCHUM, AND ISLAND
PARK—CAN EXPECT 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW, THE HEAVIEST TOTALS WILL
BE FOUND ABOVE 8,000 FEET. MOUNTAIN PASSES IN THE 6,500–8,500
FOOT RANGE ARE PROGGED TO RECEIVE 6 TO 12 INCHES, WHILE THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SAWTOOTHS COULD SEE AROUND 1.5 TO 2 FEET OF
FRESH ACCUMULATION DUE TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW. COMPOUNDING
THE WINTER WEATHER WILL BE WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH,
WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN
AND SOUTH HILLS, MAKING FOR A GENERALLY UNPLEASANT DAY ACROSS
THE REGION. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SNAKE
PLAIN, ARCO DESERT, SHOSHONE AREA, EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND THE
SOUTHERN/ALBION HILLS/MTNS.
THANKFULLY, THIS SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT QUICKLY INTO WYOMING BY FRIDAY, ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF AND SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FRIDAY. WHILE FRIDAY REMAINS BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS, IT WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER THAN THURSDAY BEFORE A
MORE ROBUST WARMING TREND TAKES HOLD FOR THE WEEKEND. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ENSURING DRY CONDITIONS AND A RAPID CLIMB IN
TEMPERATURES. VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 60S THIS WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED
TO GIVE WAY TO THE 70S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
AHEAD, THE PATTERN MAY BECOME UNSETTLED AGAIN BY MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY SUBSEQUENT DISTURBANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MDT WED APR 1 2026
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED BUT SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
THROUGH OVERNIGHT THROUGH 5 AM. DID DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS
AS WELL IN THE 06 TO 09Z TIME FRAME. HAVE -SHRA AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 09Z. BIG FORECAST PROBLEM IS IF AND WHEN PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO SNOW AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE A MIX AT SUN
AFTER 09Z AND A MIX AFTER 13Z AT IDA AND PIH AND AT BYI AFTER
11Z. FOR DIJ CHANGED TO SNOW AFTER 12Z. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR DOES
MOVE IN QUICKLY POST COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD END PRECIPIATION
PRETTY QUICKLY BEFORE 18Z AND ONLY LEFT PRECIPIATION IN AT DIJ.
HAVE SNOW BACK AT IDA AND DIJ AFTER 03Z THURSDAY NIGHT AS
CONVERGENCE ZONE IS POSSIBLE IN WRAP AROUND WAVE. ONLY HAVE
VCSH AT PIH. DROPPED VISIBILITY TO AS LOW AS 3 MILES IN THE SNOW
AND RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY MORNING. OTHER BIG IMPACT WILL BE
WINDS AFTER 12Z WITH SUSTAINED 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT BYI, PIH AND
IDA WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KNOTS. GENERALLY 15 KNOTS AT SUN ANT DIJ
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. OVERALL NOT A GOOD DAY ON THURSDAY
FOR GENERAL AVIATION.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR IDZ051>057-065.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR IDZ060-063-
064-066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
IDZ071>074.
DISCUSSION...MCKAUGHAN/TW
AVIATION...GK
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