244
FXUS65 KPIH 021747
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1147 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER: A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS, WHERE
IMPACTFUL SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.
- HIGH-ELEVATION SNOWFALL: ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE
PROBABLE FOR MOUNTAIN PASSES, WITH UP TO 1 TO 2 FEET POSSIBLE
ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS, PARTICULARLY IN THE SAWTOOTHS AND BEAR
RIVER RANGE.
- WINDY THURSDAY: A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SNAKE
PLAIN, MAGIC VALLEY, TETON VALLEY, AND SOUTH HILLS FOR GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH.
- HOLIDAY WEEKEND WARM-UP: FOLLOWING A COLD AND WET THURSDAY, A
HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE WILL USHER IN A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND,
WITH 70-DEGREE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL APPROACHING OUR AREA AND IS CURRENTLY IN A LINE
JUST WEST OF STANLEY TO JUST EAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTERN THROUGH THE DAY EXITING OUR
AREA INTO WYOMING BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WITH THE MORNING COMMUTE ALONG THE INTERSTATE
CORRIDORS, BRINGING A RAPID TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. LOOK
FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH POCATELLO, BLACKFOOT, AND IDAHO
FALLS BETWEEN 7 AM TO 9AM. WHILE THIS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL
WILL SATURATE THE GROUND, THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS. SIGNIFICANT VALLEY
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND
WET ROADS. HOWEVER, A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. EASTERN BENCH AREAS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN COULD
RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WET SNOW. BEHIND THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE MID-30S TO LOWER 40S. MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK CONVERGENCE BAND
DROPPING DOWN THE SNAKE PLAIN AROUND 5 TO 9 PM THIS EVENING.
THIS BAND LOOKS TO REACH IDAHO FALLS AROUND 6 PM AND BLACKFOOT
AROUND 7 PM. SO FAR, MODELS SHOW THIS BAND MOVING EAST BEFORE
HITTING POCATELLO. SNOW OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
CONVERGENCE BAND THIS EVENING.
THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. WHILE ELEVATIONS
AROUND 6,500 FEET—INCLUDING STANLEY, KETCHUM, AND ISLAND
PARK—CAN EXPECT 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW, THE HEAVIEST TOTALS WILL
BE FOUND ABOVE 8,000 FEET. MOUNTAIN PASSES IN THE 6,500–8,500
FOOT RANGE ARE PROGGED TO RECEIVE 6 TO 12 INCHES, WHILE THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SAWTOOTHS COULD SEE AROUND 1.5 TO 2 FEET OF
FRESH ACCUMULATION DUE TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW. COMPOUNDING
THE WINTER WEATHER WILL BE WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH,
WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN
AND SOUTH HILLS, MAKING FOR A GENERALLY UNPLEASANT DAY ACROSS
THE REGION. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SNAKE
PLAIN, ARCO DESERT, SHOSHONE AREA, EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND THE
SOUTHERN/ALBION HILLS/MTNS.
THANKFULLY, THIS SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT QUICKLY INTO WYOMING BY FRIDAY, ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF AND SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FRIDAY. WHILE FRIDAY REMAINS BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS, IT WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER THAN THURSDAY BEFORE A
MORE ROBUST WARMING TREND TAKES HOLD FOR THE WEEKEND. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ENSURING DRY CONDITIONS AND A RAPID CLIMB IN
TEMPERATURES. VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 60S THIS WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED
TO GIVE WAY TO THE 70S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
AHEAD, THE PATTERN MAY BECOME UNSETTLED AGAIN BY MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY SUBSEQUENT DISTURBANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
COMPLEX SPRING SYSTEM BRINGING A MIX OF CONDITIONS TO EAST IDAHO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH GUSTS 35-40KTS THROUGHOUT THE SNAKE PLAIN MAINLY
IMPACTING BYI, PIH AND IDA. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY LESS AT 25-30KTS FOR DIJ AND SUN. SHOWERS REMAIN VIABLE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS PRIMARILY
FOR SUN AND BYI, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME, THUS KEPT VCSH PRIMARILY. SHOWERS COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER
VFR CONDITIONS TO MVFR, OTHERWISE CONTINUED VFR IS EXPECTED FOR
THESE TWO LOCATIONS. FURTHER EAST, THERE IS EXPECTATION OF A
CONVERGENCE BAND OF SNOW TO IMPACT IDA AND DIJ TONIGHT BRINGING
VIS AND CIGS TO AT LEAST MVFR AND LIKELY TOWARD IFR. BAND IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH TOWARD PIH. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH
ENOUGH TO PUSH TERMINAL FORECAST TO PROB30, BUT IS ON THE CUSP.
IF BAND CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH, CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO IDA WITH MVFR BORDERING ON IFR. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SHIFT BACK TOWARD VFR.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ051>057-065.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR IDZ060-063-
064-066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
IDZ071>074.
DISCUSSION...MCKAUGHAN/TW
AVIATION...DMH
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