087
FXUS65 KPIH 060811
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
211 AM MDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND TO AFTERNOON HIGHS LASTS UNTIL MONDAY, THEN
LEVELING OFF FOR TUE.
- NEXT LOW WITH COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES COOL BY 6 TO 9 DEGREES.
- WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THEN WINDY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 AM MDT MON APR 6 2026
TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
ANOTHER 30 HOURS OR SO, THEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PUSH THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD
FRONT THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL BE MAINLY KNOWN FOR THE WIND THAT DEVELOPS LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN, ALONG WITH BLOWING
DUST THAT GETS GENERATED. THE COLD FRONT COULD ALSO TRIGGER SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ALONG THE ID-UT BORDER. SHOWERS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED, WITH SOME EVEN STARTING TUE MORNING BUT
MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW 0.05 OF AN INCH, NEARLY ALL OF
IT STAYING IN HIGHLANDS AND MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL APPEARS TO BE
NEGLIGIBLE, EVEN AT HIGH ELEVATIONS, AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS FRONT, PLUS ANY RESULTANT
BLOWING DUST THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE MOST LIKELY ZONE
FOR A WIND ADVISORY IS THE MUD LAKE-TERRETON TO CRATERS OF THE
MOON/CAREY REGION. ALSO AREAS EAST OF BLACKFOOT AND IDAHO FALLS.
WIND SPEED APPEARS TO BE DOWN 5 MPH TO 8 MPH ON WED, SO NO
ADVISORY SHOULD BE NECESSARY. STRONGEST WIND WILL BE IN THE
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
THU THROUGH SUN...THIS PERIOD IS ONCE AGAIN PRESENTING A
DIFFERENT SCENARIO. THU AND FRI APPEAR TO BE MAINLY DRY, AS ALL
CLUSTERS IN THIS TWO DAY PERIOD SHOW A SPLIT FLOW WITH A CLOSED
LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST SHUNTING MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM IS FAR FAR NORTH
IN NORTHERN ALBERTA OR EVEN FARTHER NORTH. THIS PUTS EASTERN
IDAHO IN A DRY POSTION IN BETWEEN MOISTURE TRACKS. THE ONLY FLOW
IN THE OINTMENT WOULD BE IF THE CA TRACKS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH, THEN IT COULD BRING IN SOME UNSTABLE MOIST AIR AND
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AT BEST RIGHT NOW, THIS WOULD BE RATED ABOUT A 15 PERCENT CHANCE
OF OCCURRENCE FOR SHOWERS AND 10 PERCENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THIS POINT, CLUSTERS DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS, WITH A 50-50 SPLIT
ON THE NEXT TROUGH STAYING UNIFIED AND SLIDING OVER THE GEM
STATE DURING THE WEEKEND, OR FOR CONTINUED SPLIT FLOW WITH THE
NEAREST TROUGH STAYING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA. SUN TRENDS
WITH THE WETTER SOLUTION BECOMING MORE POPULAR.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUED THE TREND FOR WARMER, WITH NOW SOME SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN HIGHS PEAKING AROUND 70, UP FROM THE UPPER 50S JUST
TWO DAYS AGO.
WIND DURING THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON MIXING
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1001 PM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
SHOULD TURN WESTERLY AT MOST SITES IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AT
SUN SHOULD TURN FROM DOWNVALLEY TO UPVALLEY AROUND MIDDAY. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MESSICK
AVIATION...13
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