726
FXUS65 KPIH 251056
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
456 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING. COLD TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL
AGAIN CHALLENGE THE FREEZING MARK TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
- WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE GREAT
BASIN CONTINUE TO THREATEN VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
- SLOW WARMING WILL GET TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
TODAY THROUGH MON NIGHT...DEEP, NEARLY STATIONARY, UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS POSITIONED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SHORT WAVES
CONTINUE TO ENTER THE WEST SIDE OF THE PATTERN AND EXTEND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IDAHO. THERE IS A VERY WEAK LOW OFF THE CA COAST THAT WILL BE
BROUGHT EASTWARD WITH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WHEN IT
PHASES WITH A SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE DEEP CANADIAN LOW. THIS
MOTION OCCURS TONIGHT. THE END RESULT IS THE SOME MOISTURE IN
THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SOURCE
SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER. MEANWHILE, VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AT THE SAME TIME. THE
NORTHERN TROUGHING APPEARS STALLED OVER WESTERN MT AND CENTRAL
ID ALL THE WAY UNTIL MON EVENING. THIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA.
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AVAILABLE TO LOOK AT HAVE VERY
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION;
MANY AMOUNTS IN ANY 6 HOUR PERIOD ARE TRACE TO 0.03. ONLY THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER AROUND THE BEAR LAKE BASIN HAVE LARGER AMOUNTS;
THERE IS SOME TIMING CONSISTENCY THERE WITH THE LARGEST EVENT
DURING THE DAY SUN. EXPECT MORNING SNOW AND AFTERNOON LOW
ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE HOVERING IN THE LOWER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT SOME
COLD TEMPERATURE PRODUCT TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONDITION, BUT AT THIS
TIME UNSURE IF IT WILL BE A FREEZE WARNING OR A FROST ADVISORY.
OTHER LOCATIONS ARE NOT UNDER THE FREEZE-FROST PROGRAM, SO IT IS
NOT A CONSIDERATION. THESE OTHER LOCATIONS ARE MOSTLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE EXPECTED AT
NIGHT.
TUE THROUGH FRI...THE CANADIAN LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY--WHICH
MEANS IT IS MOVING SLOWLY. BY WED IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO REDUCE THE TROUGHING OVERHEAD. CLOUDS DECREASE, AND THE
STRONG SPRING SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS, WHICH FOR EXAMPLE WOULD BE MID 30S AND LOW 60S
FOR POCATELLO.
THE LAST BREEZY DAY WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN IS
TUE, THEN MUCH LIGHTER WIND AS EASTERN IDAHO SITS BETWEEN TWO
LOWS UNTIL FRI AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST WHEN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD.
AGAIN, ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE SOLUTIONS HAVE PATTERNS THAT ARE
DRY AFTER TUE EVENING, WHILE THE OTHER 25 PERCENT OR SO KEEP
THIS TROUGHING OVER EASTERN IDAHO.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
SATELLITE INDICATES SOME LOW CLOUDINESS AROUND THIS MORNING, AND
TIME-HEIGHT FORECASTS INDICATES THIS LAYER DISAPPEARS AROUND
25/16Z THIS MORNING. THIS COULD CREATE A MARGINAL VFR CIG AT
KIDA, KPIH, OR KSUN. AFTER THAT TIME, THERE IS A PERIOD OF NO
CIG IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY, WITH A RETURN
OF A CIG AT KBYI AND KPIH AS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH STARTS
MOVING IN. HOWEVER, IT STAYS SOLID VFR. VSBY IS UNLIMITED. THERE
IS A RISK OF TSRA AT KDIJ, AND SHRA/SHSN AT KDIJ AND KSUN DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON TO OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WIND STARTS AS DRAINAGE OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE, PEAKS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH AS 10KT SUSTAINED WITH NO APPRECIABLE GUSTS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR IDZ051>055.
DISCUSSION...MESSICK
AVIATION...MESSICK
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