292
FXUS65 KPIH 200631
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1231 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST & FREEZE CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
- INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE
WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1209 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
TRENDS STILL POINT TOWARD AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND ACTUALLY
DEEPENS AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE. AT THE MOMENT, WE MAY SEE
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ONCE WE GET INTO THE
STANLEY BASIN AND WOOD RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGE
FROM JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO CLOSER TO 0.25" ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS. IN REALITY, WHEREVER WE CAN
GET HEAVIER SHOWERS OR BANDS TO DEVELOP, 0.25" CAN EASILY BE
ACHIEVED THROUGH TOMORROW. LOOKING AT PROBABILITY FORECASTS, THE
HIGHER END AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN 12 HOUR PERIOD DO INDICATE THAT
0.30-0.50" COULD OCCUR IN THESE SITUATIONS. IT WILL BE BREEZY
OCCASIONALLY IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WITH THE ONLY IMPACT COMING
THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ON AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR.
WE WILL LIKELY EXCEED THRESHOLDS FOR A NORTHEAST WIND EVENT AND
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD. IT WILL BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH THAT WE WILL WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
HIGHEST PEAKS AND RIDGELINES AS WELL. IT LOOKS LIKE FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS (OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS THIS TIME OF YEAR)
MAY LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WE HAVE A FREEZE WARNING
AND FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY FOR THIS
MORNING. FOR TONIGHT, A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS THE ARCO DESERT AND INL AREA. FRIDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY SEE FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE SNAKE PLAIN, AND
FROST CONDITIONS IN RURAL SPOTS SATURDAY MORNING.
WE DO EVENTUALLY WARM BACK UP, BUT IT WON'T BE UNTIL WE RETURN
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL
BE WELL INTO THE 70S AND 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. WITH THE NEXT
LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION STARTING TUESDAY, WE WILL QUICKLY
DROP BACK INTO THE 60S (BASED ON THE LATEST BLEND OF MODELS
FORECASTS) BY MIDWEEK. WE WILL LIKELY ALSO NOT BE SHOWER OR
STORM FREE AHEAD OF THAT STORM. WE CONTINUE TO SEE SMALL SURGES
OF MOISTURES WHICH COULD SET OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
AND THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW, WE ARE KEEPING ANY POTENTIAL AT
15% OR LESS UNTIL TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 920 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WINDS HAVE SETTLED DOWN FOR THE NIGHT. A FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MAY DRIFT OVER THE SITES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY. SUN SHOULD TURN UPVALLEY AROUND MIDDAY WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR IDZ051-053>055.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR IDZ052.
DISCUSSION...KEYES
AVIATION...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page