579
FXUS65 KPIH 201025
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
425 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST & FREEZE CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
- INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE
WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1209 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
TRENDS STILL POINT TOWARD AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND ACTUALLY
DEEPENS AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE. AT THE MOMENT, WE MAY SEE
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ONCE WE GET INTO THE
STANLEY BASIN AND WOOD RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGE
FROM JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO CLOSER TO 0.25" ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS. IN REALITY, WHEREVER WE CAN
GET HEAVIER SHOWERS OR BANDS TO DEVELOP, 0.25" CAN EASILY BE
ACHIEVED THROUGH TOMORROW. LOOKING AT PROBABILITY FORECASTS, THE
HIGHER END AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN 12 HOUR PERIOD DO INDICATE THAT
0.30-0.50" COULD OCCUR IN THESE SITUATIONS. IT WILL BE BREEZY
OCCASIONALLY IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WITH THE ONLY IMPACT COMING
THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ON AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR.
WE WILL LIKELY EXCEED THRESHOLDS FOR A NORTHEAST WIND EVENT AND
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD. IT WILL BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH THAT WE WILL WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
HIGHEST PEAKS AND RIDGELINES AS WELL. IT LOOKS LIKE FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS (OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS THIS TIME OF YEAR)
MAY LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WE HAVE A FREEZE WARNING
AND FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY FOR THIS
MORNING. FOR TONIGHT, A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS THE ARCO DESERT AND INL AREA. FRIDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY SEE FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE SNAKE PLAIN, AND
FROST CONDITIONS IN RURAL SPOTS SATURDAY MORNING.
WE DO EVENTUALLY WARM BACK UP, BUT IT WON'T BE UNTIL WE RETURN
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL
BE WELL INTO THE 70S AND 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. WITH THE NEXT
LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION STARTING TUESDAY, WE WILL QUICKLY
DROP BACK INTO THE 60S (BASED ON THE LATEST BLEND OF MODELS
FORECASTS) BY MIDWEEK. WE WILL LIKELY ALSO NOT BE SHOWER OR
STORM FREE AHEAD OF THAT STORM. WE CONTINUE TO SEE SMALL SURGES
OF MOISTURES WHICH COULD SET OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
AND THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW, WE ARE KEEPING ANY POTENTIAL AT
15% OR LESS UNTIL TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
WE WILL SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE ARE
EXPECTING TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH IF WE GET
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO FALL AT A PARTICULAR AIRPORT, WE COULD
QUICKLY DROP TO VFR CONDITIONS. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT PIH,
IDA, AND DIJ WILL BE MOST IMPACTED. BYI AND ESPECIALLY SUN WILL
BE ON THE EDGE OF ANY MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION, BUT
CERTAINLY SOME SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THOSE TAF
SITES. WE ARE MAINTAINING VCSH AT DIJ, IDA, AND PIH FOR THE
LATEST UPDATE. IT IS EXPECTED TO SEE THAT CONVERTED TO -SHRA
WITH SOME MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND CERTAINLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER
SUNSET.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR IDZ051-053>055.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR IDZ052.
DISCUSSION...KEYES
AVIATION...KEYES
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