190
FXUS65 KPIH 221010
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
410 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH MONDAY
- LOW PRESSURE SETTLES IN NEXT WEEK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OUT INTO THE PLAINS, LEAVING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE TODAY. THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO
WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY OVER IDAHO THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS ALLOWS FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
CONSIDERABLY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S-MID 80S BY SUNDAY AND
MEMORIAL DAY. THE PATTERN WILL BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT FOR NOW THERE IS NOTHING THAT SIGNALS ANY TYPE OF
WIND-RELATED HEADLINES. THE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL EACH DAY
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE POCKETS
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SWEEPING ACROSS THE STATE.
UNFORTUNATELY, WITH HOW THINGS MAY TIME OUT EACH DAY, WE ARE
LOOKING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES/VIRGA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS UNDER 10%, SO IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO POSSIBLY SEE A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS POP UP TODAY. WE SEE ANOTHER POCKET OF MOISTURE
ARRIVE LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOMENT, WE ARE KEEPING
ANY POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO LESS THAN 15%. THAT
POCKET OF MOISTURE SLOWLY WORKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ALL
OF THE MODELS HINT THAT WE SHOULD A LITTLE HIGHER CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
INCOMING STORM. ANY POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOSTLY
LIKELY LIE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, WITH A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST. CIRCLING BACK, THIS MORNING AND TOMORROW
MORNING SHOULD BE LAST MORNINGS WE SEE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
FROST OR A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. THE FROST
ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 9AM. WE MAY NOT NEED ANOTHER
ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT, BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 36 DEGREES, ALTHOUGH FEW MORE REMOTE SPOTS
MAY DIP TO BETWEEN 32 AND 36.
BEYOND THAT, THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT ON LOW
PRESSURE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE WEST. THIS SHOULD HELP COOL
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS. WITH THE
PATTERN SLOW TO SHIFT EAST, WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS DAILY FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND. THE LOWER END HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE EVEN COLDER THAN THE OFFICIAL BLEND OF
MODELS FORECAST, AND HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAY
TUNED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SPRINKLES/VIRGA AND A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. IF
ANYTHING DEVELOPS IT COULD IMPACT SUN AND DIJ. AT THE MOMENT,
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT THIS WOULD OCCUR AND IS NOT
MENTIONED IN THE LATEST ROUND OF TAFS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1224 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL DEFINITELY BE WARMER WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN, HOWEVER, FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (MORE LIKELY SPRINKLES
AND VIRGA) AND STORMS EACH DAY. FOR TODAY, THAT POTENTIAL LIES
ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS ZONE 411 ALONG
THE MONTANA BORDER. FOR SATURDAY, THE POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY
LOWER, BUT STILL THERE MAINLY ACROSS ZONES 413 AND 427. THAT
POTENTIAL INCREASES ON SUNDAY IN SIMILAR AREAS, WITH SOME
BLEEDOVER INTO PORTIONS OF THE MAGIC VALLEY (425) AND SNAKE
PLAIN (SOUTH END OF 410). WHILE ELSEWHERE THE POTENTIAL IS MUCH
LOWER, IT IS STILL AROUND 10% IN SEVERAL AREAS. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE LACK OF WETTING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. FOR MONDAY, THE
FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFTS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FOR THE MOST PART. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LIGHT. FOR
TUESDAY AND BEYOND, LOW PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA FOR A
DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN IF WE END UP
WITH LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO
THE 60S TO MID 70S.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR IDZ052>054.
DISCUSSION...KEYES
AVIATION...KEYES
FIRE WEATHER...KEYES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page