786
FXUS65 KPIH 230418
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1018 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND MAINLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH MONDAY
- LOW PRESSURE SETTLES IN NEXT WEEK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
TODAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH EAST IDAHO WITH MINIMAL
IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS, BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MONTANA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL WITH
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM
NORTHWEST FLOW, THROUGH ZONAL, TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARDS THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND FOR
BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. AT THIS POINT, ADDITIONAL
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE NOT LIKELY MOVING THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. HIGH-RES SHORT TERM MODELS MAINTAIN POCKETS OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION, MOSTLY WEAK AND FOCUSED OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
MOVING INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, THERE IS INCREASED AGREEMENT
ON HOW THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW IMPACTS EAST IDAHO, AT LEAST FOR
EARLY IN THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW CLOSED OR NEARLY
CLOSED LOW CENTERED ALONG THE PACNW COAST LATE MONDAY/MEMORIAL
DAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON, CONVECTION STILL REMAINS CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. UPPER LOW SHIFTS
CLOSER TO IDAHO TUESDAY THEN DEEPENS INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR
WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AGAIN AT THIS POINT. THERE
IS INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS STARTING
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES COOL
SLIGHTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCREASED MOISTURE, CLOUD
COVER, AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION, BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME FEW TO SCT MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. EXPECT MILD CONDITIONS TO START SATURDAY,
BUT WE WILL SEE WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL BECOME BKN MOSTLY IN THE MID-LEVELS IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN BKN EARLY ON TOMORROW EVENING
WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SUN WHERE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY BE FEW TO SCT BY TOMORROW EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1224 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL DEFINITELY BE WARMER WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN, HOWEVER, FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (MORE LIKELY SPRINKLES
AND VIRGA) AND STORMS EACH DAY. FOR TODAY, THAT POTENTIAL LIES
ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS ZONE 411 ALONG
THE MONTANA BORDER. FOR SATURDAY, THE POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY
LOWER, BUT STILL THERE MAINLY ACROSS ZONES 413 AND 427. THAT
POTENTIAL INCREASES ON SUNDAY IN SIMILAR AREAS, WITH SOME
BLEEDOVER INTO PORTIONS OF THE MAGIC VALLEY (425) AND SNAKE
PLAIN (SOUTH END OF 410). WHILE ELSEWHERE THE POTENTIAL IS MUCH
LOWER, IT IS STILL AROUND 10% IN SEVERAL AREAS. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE LACK OF WETTING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. FOR MONDAY, THE
FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFTS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FOR THE MOST PART. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LIGHT. FOR
TUESDAY AND BEYOND, LOW PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA FOR A
DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN IF WE END UP
WITH LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO
THE 60S TO MID 70S.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DMH
AVIATION...TW
FIRE WEATHER...KEYES
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