439
FXUS65 KPIH 231021
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
421 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND MAINLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH MONDAY
- LOW PRESSURE SETTLES IN NEXT WEEK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON TAP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS CLEAR ISLAND PARK THIS MORNING, WE ARE LOOKING
AT A SIMILAR THREAT IN THAT REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH HILLS/ALBION MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AS GO THROUGH TONIGHT, A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN
IDAHO. THE CHANCE VARIES BETWEEN 10-20%. WHILE NOT LIKELY, THERE
IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING. FOR SUNDAY,
CHANCES PICK UP A BIT ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER. ON
MEMORIAL DAY, THE BEST CHANCE SHIFTS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. THERE IS MINIMAL CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 35 MPH
TODAY. FOR SUNDAY, THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
RIVER AND 10-30% ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN HIGHLANDS.HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND QUICKLY RISE INTO
THE 70S AND 80S, BUT US BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
STARTING TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE DETAILS, DO
EXPECT MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CLOSED LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. AND EVENTUALLY KICKED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE PATTERN
WILL BE SLOW TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE LOWER 48, SO IT MAY TAKE A FEW
DAYS TO CLEAR THINGS OUT. HIGHS DROP BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S
BASED ON THE LATEST OFFICIAL BLEND OF MODELS FORECAST. LOOKING
AT THE ENTIRE RANGE OF POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES, THE LOW END FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
LOOK FOR VFR WEATHER EVEN WITH SOME MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AROUND.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AND EVEN
A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE
IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
WINDS OUT THERE TODAY, WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS AROUND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1248 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL LOCK IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY MAJOR DROP
IN HUMIDITY AT THIS POINT THOUGH. MID LEVEL MOISTURE STICKS
AROUND FOR A LOWER END CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE TODAY ACROSS
ZONES 411, 422, 427, AND 476. WE COULD SEE SOMETHING DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTH END OF 410 ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE
POTENTIAL INCREASES ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS 413 AND 427. A
SECONDARY AREA WILL DEVELOP FROM AROUND MACKAY (476) EASTWARD
TOWARD DRIGGS (410 AND 411). THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE OF GUSTS
OVER 35 MPH WITH THE NORTHERN SWATH, AND 30-50% DOWN SOUTH
CLOSER TO THE UTAH BORDER. FOR MEMORIAL DAY, AS LOW PRESSURE
SWINGS INLAND, WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AS QUICKLY
AS WE GO TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WE WILL SWING BACK TO
AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A CLOSED LOW WILL TAKE A
FEW DAYS TO MOVE ACROSS IDAHO, BUT IN THE PROCESS WE DO EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KEYES
AVIATION...KEYES
FIRE WEATHER...KEYES
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