038
FXUS65 KPIH 232323
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
523 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND: TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE INTO THE
70S AND 80S THROUGH MONDAY. MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE STRETCH, WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS REACHING THE MID-TO-
UPPER 80S.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS & VIRGA: HIGHS WILL PAIR WITH LOW-END SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY, THOUGH DRY AIR MEANS MOSTLY VIRGA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY NEAR THE
UTAH/WYOMING BORDERS BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ON MEMORIAL DAY.
- MID-WEEK PATTERN SHIFT: A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES
TUESDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING COOLER,
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S ALONGSIDE DAILY
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
GRADUAL EXPANSION OF A CUMULUS FIELD, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, THOUGH LOCAL RADARS REMAIN CLEAR OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A 10% TO 20% CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE DRY AIR
REMAINS ENTRENCHED AT THE SURFACE, THESE SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY
RESULT IN DRY VIRGA, THOUGH A VERY LOW POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAINS. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUIET TODAY, WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 35 MPH.
FOR SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES PICK UP SLIGHTLY. GUIDANCE
HIGHLIGHTS AROUND A 30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER—FOCUSING PRIMARILY NEAR THE UTAH AND
WYOMING BORDERS—AND A 10% TO 30% CHANCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. ON MEMORIAL DAY, THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY SHIFTS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. UNDERNEATH THESE PASSING CLOUD DECKS, A STEADY
WARMING TREND WILL CARRY AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND
80S, MAKING FOR A SEASONABLY WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LOWER VALLEY
LOCATIONS WILL PEAK ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S.
THE TRANQUIL, WARM PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY AS A
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND
MEANDERS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK,
KEEPING CONDITIONS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REGION. CONSEQUENTLY,
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TREND COOLER, DROPPING BACK INTO THE MORE
SEASONAL 60S AND 70S. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO ROUND OUT THE MONTH OF MAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW, WE COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME BREEZIER DAYS DURING THE MID-
WEEK TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS 15 TO 25 KTS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL FAVOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS. PROBABILITY OF THUNDER TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
20 TO 30% AT KBYI AND KDIJ, WITH LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. THEREFORE, HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 AT THE TWO
AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ELSEWHERE FOR ANY
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1248 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL LOCK IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY MAJOR DROP
IN HUMIDITY AT THIS POINT THOUGH. MID LEVEL MOISTURE STICKS
AROUND FOR A LOWER END CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE TODAY ACROSS
ZONES 411, 422, 427, AND 476. WE COULD SEE SOMETHING DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTH END OF 410 ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE
POTENTIAL INCREASES ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS 413 AND 427. A
SECONDARY AREA WILL DEVELOP FROM AROUND MACKAY (476) EASTWARD
TOWARD DRIGGS (410 AND 411). THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE OF GUSTS
OVER 35 MPH WITH THE NORTHERN SWATH, AND 30-50% DOWN SOUTH
CLOSER TO THE UTAH BORDER. FOR MEMORIAL DAY, AS LOW PRESSURE
SWINGS INLAND, WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AS QUICKLY
AS WE GO TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WE WILL SWING BACK TO
AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A CLOSED LOW WILL TAKE A
FEW DAYS TO MOVE ACROSS IDAHO, BUT IN THE PROCESS WE DO EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...CROPP
FIRE WEATHER...KEYES
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