027
FXUS65 KPIH 241007
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
407 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND: TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE INTO THE
70S AND 80S THROUGH MONDAY. MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE STRETCH, WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS REACHING THE MID-TO-
UPPER 80S.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
SUNDAY NEAR THE UTAH/WYOMING BORDERS BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON MEMORIAL DAY.
- MID-WEEK PATTERN SHIFT: A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES
TUESDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING COOLER,
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S ALONGSIDE DAILY
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1249 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST, MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND MEMORIAL
DAY, ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
MANY LOCATIONS TO TOP OUT IN THE 80S EACH DAY. IN TERMS OF ANY
SHOWER OR STORMS, WE ARE ALREADY SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD
THIS MORNING. WHILE NOT LIKELY, WE COULD SEE SOME EARLY
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN. BY AFTERNOON, THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. ONE CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE SNAKE RIVER, WITH THE OTHER EXTENDING FROM AROUND MACKAY AND
GILMORE SUMMIT THROUGH ISLAND PARK. THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL LIKELY
BE GUSTY WINDS AS THERE IS A 30-70% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 35 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE EXCEEDING 45 MPH. WE SHOULD SEE THAT
WIND DOWN FOR THE MOST PART BY MIDNIGHT. THE NEXT ROUND SHIFTS
MORE INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH WE MAY END
UP SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. THERE IS A
50-90% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND MAGIC VALLEY, AND 30-50% CHANCE ELSEWHERE. HIGHEST GUSTS
TOMORROW COULD EXCEED EASILY EXCEED 50 MPH BASED ON THE LATEST
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS FOR THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
VIRGA OR THUNDERSTORMS, IT WILL BE BREEZY BUT REMAINING BELOW
ANY THRESHOLDS FOR HEADLINES.
WE ARE SEEING SOME COMMON TRENDS DEVELOPING FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THE CLOSED LOW STILL MOVES INLAND BUT
DROPS INITIALLY OVER THE SIERRAS AND REALLY DOESN'T MOVE MUCH.
WE WILL STILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL END UP
WARMER AS FLOW OVER THE STATE REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH. WE ARE NOW
LOOKING AT 70S AND LOW 80S FOR TUESDAY AND 70S FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINS PRETTY WIDE BOTH DAYS.
IF THE TREND KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER SOUTHWEST, THE HIGHER END OF
THE FORECASTS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S MAY END UP
REALITY. THE LOW END OF THE RANGE HAS WARMED UP A BIT, BUT STILL
IS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S BY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW HOLDING
UP A BIT, BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS, STORMS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED, EVEN WITH AN INCREASE IN OVERALL MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA AROUND
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
PLAIN, WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS POSSIBLE. BYI IS THE ONLY TAF SITE
THAT HAS A HIGH ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE WORTH A
MENTION, AND WE ARE MAINTAIN PROB30 AT THE MOMENT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1249 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WARMER WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY, WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
VIRGA AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS ZONES 422 AND 475
IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, 427, 411, AND 413. THERE IS 30-70%
CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
RIVER, WITH HIGHER END GUSTS REACHING 45 MPH. ON MONDAY, THE
BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT SHIFTS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS,
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTS INCREASES TOMORROW WITH A CORRIDOR OF
50-90% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
SOUTH ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY (425), WITH PEAK GUSTS EASILY
EXCEEDING 50 MPH. THERE CHANCE ELSEWHERE IS STILL ELEVATED AT
30-50%. THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN FOR MIDWEEK, AS
THE LOW ENDS UP POTENTIALLY PARKED OVER THE SIERRAS FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER,
ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP A DECENT SHOT AT
WETTING RAINS ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE LOW
APPEARS TO FINALLY SHIFT ACROSS IDAHO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KEYES
AVIATION...KEYES
FIRE WEATHER...KEYES
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