894
FXUS65 KPIH 241950
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
150 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY HOLIDAY WEEKEND STORMS: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE PRODUCING ERRATIC
OUTFLOW GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH.
- PEAK WARMTH TOMORROW: MEMORIAL DAY WILL BRING THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE STRETCH, WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S ALONGSIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
- EXTENDED MID-WEEK UNSETTLED PATTERN: THE WARM HOLIDAY REGIME
BREAKS DOWN TUESDAY AS A CLOSED LOW PARKS ITSELF NEAR LAKE
TAHOE, KICKING OFF A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DAILY STORM CHANCES,
BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF
MAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY CAPTURES MODEST CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
FLANKING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN EDGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY LIT UP
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MANY OF WHICH ARE
GENERATING ROBUST, ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 50
MPH. HIGH-RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE MODELS (CAMS) KEEP THIS ACTIVE
REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RESPONDING WELL TO THE
HOLIDAY WARMTH, SITTING COMFORTABLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEYS.
EXPECT A NEAR-REPEAT PERFORMANCE—BUT WITH A BIT MORE HEAT AND
CONVECTIVE WIND POTENTIAL—FOR MEMORIAL DAY. LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES PEAK TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE MID-TO-
UPPER 80S. THIS ADDED HEATING WILL DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CAMS ARE
PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE REGARDING WIND POTENTIAL TOMORROW; THE
LATEST 12Z HREF GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS A 70% TO 90% PROBABILITY OF
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK LOCALIZED
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THE WARM AND TRANQUIL PATTERN COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN ON TUESDAY
AS A POTENT CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. AND MEANDERS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. RATHER THAN SWEEPING
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS
FEATURE TO PARK ITSELF NEAR LAKE TAHOE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, KEEPING THE REGIONAL WEATHER HIGHLY
VOLATILE. WHILE MINOR MODEL DISCREPANCIES PERSIST REGARDING THE
PRECISE ORIENTATION AND DAY-TO-DAY WOBBLE OF THIS LOW, THE
OVERARCHING SIGNAL IS OVERWHELMINGLY UNSETTLED. CONSEQUENTLY, WE
WILL SEE A SUSTAINED COOLING TREND, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
DROPPING BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S AND 70S. THIS
STAGNANT SYNOPTIC SETUP ENSURES THAT DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF MAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY INTERVALS DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW THE
CORE OF THE LOW TRACKS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
BEGUN ACROSS EAST IDAHO, WITH INITIAL GENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS, FROM JUST NORTH OF SUN NORTHEAST TO THE MONTANA
BORDER. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED PROB30 TSRA AT
BYI, ADDED TO DIJ WITH GUST POTENTIAL AROUND 45KTS. HAVE SOME
EXPECTATION THAT THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN, SO ADDED PROB30
SHRA TO SUN FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY, AND IDA A LITTLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. PIH SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT ANY
ACTIVITY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES
AROUND SUNSET, BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1249 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WARMER WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY, WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
VIRGA AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS ZONES 422 AND 475
IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, 427, 411, AND 413. THERE IS 30-70%
CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
RIVER, WITH HIGHER END GUSTS REACHING 45 MPH. ON MONDAY, THE
BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT SHIFTS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS,
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTS INCREASES TOMORROW WITH A CORRIDOR OF
50-90% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
SOUTH ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY (425), WITH PEAK GUSTS EASILY
EXCEEDING 50 MPH. THERE CHANCE ELSEWHERE IS STILL ELEVATED AT
30-50%. THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN FOR MIDWEEK, AS
THE LOW ENDS UP POTENTIALLY PARKED OVER THE SIERRAS FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER,
ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP A DECENT SHOT AT
WETTING RAINS ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE LOW
APPEARS TO FINALLY SHIFT ACROSS IDAHO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...DMH
FIRE WEATHER...KEYES
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