687
FXUS65 KPIH 091731
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1131 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS MORNING WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.
- GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING
- DRYING AND WARMING TRENDS ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CURRENTLY. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
VERY STRONG 700MB JET, AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB SHORTWAVE
AXIS. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY VIRGA WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION, BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE WITH PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT. HRRR
FORECAST SURFACE GUSTS HAVE EXCEEDED 45KTS AT TIMES, SUGGESTING
THAT ISOLATED GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY EXCEED
50 MPH AT TIMES. HOWEVER, MOST GUSTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
35-40 MPH RANGE, AS HREF PROBABILITIES ONLY SUPPORT A 35-50%
CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND
THE FRONT, SHOWERS STEADILY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
TO REACH THE GROUND BY SUNRISE. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH MOST OF EAST
IDAHO EXPECTED TO SEE WETTING RAINS OVER 0.10" BY MIDNIGHT TODAY
AND A GREATER THAN 75% CHANCE FOR 0.25" OR MORE ACROSS THE
SAWTOOTHS, FRANK CHURCH, AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. STRONG WINDS
ARE FORECAST IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT, AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CONTINUED FOR THE INL EAST TO IDAHO FALLS AND REXBURG,
ALONG WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR.
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT TODAY, BUT SECOND WEAK FEATURE
DRIVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO MONTANA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE ISLAND PARK REGION. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND
LOWER SNAKE PLAIN, AND ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED WEDNESDAY. EXPECT COLD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY
(TO A LESSER DEGREE) AND THURSDAY MORNINGS ACROSS THE SHOSHONE,
ARCO DESERT, SNAKE PLAIN, AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY GROWING
ZONES WITH TEMPERATURE 33 TO 36 DEGREES LIKELY. DRY WESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND, GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE COASTAL STATES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE TO
DROP THROUGH MONTANA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BUT MOISTURE
APPEARS TO STAY TOO FAR NORTHEAST TO IMPACT THE REGION. BREEZY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
MIDDAY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO AS A BAND OF SHOWERS DEPARTS EAST INTO WYOMING.
RAIN-COOLED AIR AND INCREASED SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FUELED BY THE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY. WE'RE NOT EXPECTING MANY
IMPACTS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT STRONGER CELLS COULD
GENERATE BRIEF, GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL. INITIALLY THIS COULD
BRIEFLY IMPACT BYI THEN PIH AND DIJ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, WE'RE SEEING AMBIENT WIND SPEEDS INCREASING OVER THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEY LOCATIONS. SKIES WILL GENERALLY
BE ON THE CLEARING TREND THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ERODES AWAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
WEDNESDAY, BROUGHT IN BY INCREASING SURFACE FLOW NEAR WHAT WE'RE
SEEING THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
AGAIN WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
TODAY EXPECT STRONG WINDS GUSTS (35 TO 50 MPH) WITH INCREASED
RHS (MIN RHS OF 25 TO 60%) WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MAINLY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 411 WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING OVER OUR
NORTHEASTERN AREAS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 45 MPH LIKELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
50S AND 60S TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LOOK FOR DRYING AND WARMING TRENDS ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BACK TO THE 70S AND 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. MIN RHS WILL
DROP BACK BELOW 25% ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOUNTAIN AREAS AND BELOW
15% FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN, EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND OUR SOUTHWEST
AREAS (FIRE WEATHER ZONES 410, 425, 427, AND PORTIONS OF 413).
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ052-053.
DISCUSSION...TW
AVIATION...TAX
FIRE WEATHER...TW
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